Hurricane Simon

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120251
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
800 PM MST Sun Oct 11 2026
 
Simon is showing signs of weakening this evening, likely due to its 
prolonged close proximity to the Mexican coastline and the 
associated negative affects of nearby mountainous terrain. Infrared 
satellite imagery indicates warming cloud tops within the convection 
in the northeastern quadrant, with mid-level dry air beginning to 
wrap around the western side of the cyclone. Recent objective Dvorak 
intensity estimates have decreased over the past several hours and 
range from 99-110 kt. Based on the deteriorating satellite 
presentation and the lower intensity estimates, the initial 
intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory. 

The major hurricane is moving slowly north-northwestward, steered by 
a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. 
Simon is forecast to track parallel to the coast of west-central 
Mexico over the next day or so. However, its continued close 
proximity to land will likely bring hurricane conditions to portions 
of the warning area, particularly near Cabo Corrientes, even though 
the core is forecast to remain just offshore. Around midweek, a 
strong upper-level low moving across the western United States is 
expected to induce a turn toward the north and then northeast. 
Although there remains some model spread, an increasing number of 
the hurricane regional models and consensus aids, including HCCA, 
bring Simon onshore around midweek. The latest NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory, showing Simon moving inland and 
dissipating in the day 3-4 period. 

Gradual weakening is expected due to the proximity to the 
mountainous terrain, which could further disrupt the hurricane's 
structure along its eastern side. A slight increase in wind shear 
and the entrainment of drier mid-level air should further contribute 
to the weakening trend. However, as Simon turns northward then 
northeastward around midweek, it is forecast to move over very warm 
waters of 31-32 C, which could limit further weakening before 
landfall. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged upward slightly 
beyond 12 h, with Simon expected to maintain hurricane strength 
through landfall. This forecast lies near the middle of the 
intensity guidance envelope. Rapid weakening is expected once Simon 
moves inland, and dissipation is forecast by 96 h. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are 
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a 
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito. 
Residents should continue to shelter in a safe room to ride out the 
storm as the most significant hazards are ongoing.

2. Simon is expected to approach the coast of western Mexico later 
this week, where hurricane conditions are possible. A Hurricane 
Watch is in effect from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya. 

3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. This 
rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 19.8N 106.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 20.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 21.8N 107.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 22.4N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 23.0N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 23.4N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  16/0000Z 24.0N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi