000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051603
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 05 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of
the area will continue to support strong to gale-force north
to northeast winds through at least Sat morning. Winds may
diminish below gale-force in the afternoon and evening hours.
Thereafter, strong north northeast gap winds will occur into
early Sun. Rough seas will persist into the weekend. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
across central Panama to 08N82W to 06N93W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 07N106W to low pressure near 1011 mb to 07N135W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 130W and 135W, also within 60 NM north
of the ITCZ between 94W and 99W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ
between 103W and 107W, between 108W and 112W and within 60 NM
north of the ITCZ between 136W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section above for information
on an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region.
High pressure of 1026 mb centered well north of the area near
33N130W continues to maintain moderate to locally fresh northwest
winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over
these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Overnight ASCAT satellite data
passes generally indicate gentle to moderate northwest to north
winds over the central and southern Gulf of California, along
with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
are over the northern Gulf waters. Elsewhere across the Mexican
offshore waters, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or
lighter winds moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region, the gradient related to high
pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to support mainly
moderate northwest to north winds and moderate seas across the
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters for the rest of the week.
Winds will diminish this weekend. Meanwhile, winds may increase
to strong speeds along the entire length of the Gulf of
California Mon night into Tue, possibly reaching gale-force in
the northern Gulf waters.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated
Fresh to strong northeast winds are over he Gulf of Papagayo
region, reaching downstream of the Gulf to near 92W. Seas
over these waters 6 to 8 ft. Farther south, moderate south to
southwest winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are south of the monsoon
trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas are evident.
For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
continue to support mostly fresh northeast winds over the
Papagayo region, pulsing to strong speeds at night, through the
weekend. Locally rough seas in northeast swell associated with
these winds may occur today. Farther west, rough seas induced by
gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue
through early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will
pulse across the remainder of the Central American waters
through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle southwest to west winds
along with moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough
going into the weekend, with the exception of moderate southwest
winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia south of 05N through
Sat.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1026 mb high pressure system positioned north of the area
continues to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
south of 27N to the ITCZ. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with
the highest seas occurring in the westernmost trade waters. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, little change is expected in the western part
of the area through the end of the week. In the eastern waters,
fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds and rough seas
will continue to spread downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and Gulf of Papagayo. A new set of long-period NW swell is
forecast to enter the NW part of the area this weekend.
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the eastern Pacific,
supporting moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas
through the rest of the week.
$$
Aguirre
