AXPZ20 KNHC 250120

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0040 UTC.


An equatorial trough curves northwestward from the border of Colombia and Panama near 07.5N78W to 06.5N81W to 09N100W. The ITCZ extends from 09N100W to 07N120W to 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 82W and 87W, and from 03N to 10N between 92W and 136W.


A surface ridge extends southeastward roughly along the outer offshore waters boundary. The pressure gradient over the northern waters is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh NW winds nearshore and W of Baja California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in merging SW and NW swell across the open waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse to between fresh and strong with locally near-gale force this evening through Thu morning, and again Fri evening through early Sat morning. Starting Thu, high pressure across the East Pacific is going to strenghten. This will cause gentle to moderate northerly winds west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands to become fresh to locally strong along with building seas by Fri. The pressure gradient across the waters will weaken by the end of the weekend into early next week resulting in fairly tranquil conditions.


Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore southern Nicaragua and also in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the Pacific coast of Colombia, and offshore/S of Costa Rica where the equatorial trough passes through.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds at the Gulf of Papagayo region will become fresh to strong later this evening through Fri morning, the moderate to fresh through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through Thu. Little change in seas is expected during the next several days.


A frontal trough is over the northern waters from 30N123.5W to 27N127W to 28.5N130W. Some isolated to scattered showers are possible near the trough. Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas are from 09N to 20N and W of 115W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the waters, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in SW swell S of 10N and primarily in NW swell N of 10N.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast to become fresh to occasionally strong, along with continuing 7 to 9 ft seas Thu evening as the surface ridge strengthens. Meanwhile, the trough in the northern waters will dissipate through Thu while shifting E. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 20N and E of 125W by Fri. Little change is forecast across the remainder of the waters into early next week.

$$ Lewitsky