476
AXPZ20 KNHC 050932
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 10N100W
to 07N121W. The ITCZ extends from 07N121W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 10N E of 91W, from
05N to 12N between 98W and 114W, and from 04N to 10N between
117W and 133W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface trough, remnants of a cold front, extends across the
southern Gulf of California to Las Barrancas in Baja California
Sur to 22N116W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ongoing over the
northern Gulf of California with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh
NW winds and rough seas to 14 ft follow the trough off Baja
California Norte, being the highest seas WNW of Guadalupe
Island. Fresh to strong winds are funneling off Cabo San Lucas
where seas are 8 ft. Relatively benign marine conditions persist
elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters.
For the forecast, the surface trough will continue to move
across the southern Gulf of California today and dissipate
tonight. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds will persist across
the northern Gulf of California through later this morning. Fresh
to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will continue off Cabo San
Lucas through tonight. Large NW swell associated with the trough,
with combined seas in excess of 8 ft will reach the waters off
Cabo San Lazaro today, the Revillagigedo Islands Tue and subside
Wed evening. Light to gentle breezes, except moderate to fresh
NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, will persist elsewhere off southern
Mexico through Fri night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Weather remains unsettled across the waters east of 90W as
showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the monsoon
trough also impact Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. This shower
activity is supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds across
these offshore waters while a weak pressure gradient elsewhere is
resulting in light to gentle winds. Seas of 5 to 6 ft primarily
in SW swell are ongoing across the offshore waters between
Ecuador and The Galapagos as well as the Central America offshore
waters.
For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will
persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and
Ecuador, with primarily moderate SW swell through the middle of
the week. Looking ahead, large SW swell is expected in Ecuadorian
waters Tue night through Thu.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A surface trough, remnants of a cold front, extends across the
southern Gulf of California to Las Barrancas in Baja California
Sur to 22N116W. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds follow the
trough, which is also impacting the subtropical waters north of
23N and E of 131W with rough seas in the 8 to 14 ft range.
Farther south, the extension of the subtropical ridge to near
17N, is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds
and 7 to 9 ft seas in the deep tropics west of 125W, with a
component of NE swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will dissipate as it
moves southward off the coast of Baja California Sur. Strong
high pressure building behind the trough will promote fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Tue, with
the strongest winds and highest seas occurring east of 130W.
Winds and seas will diminish Tue night into Wed.
$$
Ramos
