000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122050
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N93W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N93W to beyond 06N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ
extends from 05S86W to 02S140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 09N between 79W and 111W, from 03N to 12N
and W of 117W, and along the southern hemispheric ITCZ.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak surface ridge extends eastward into the waters of Baja
California, to the south of a cold front approaching the region
from the northwest. This pattern is supporting light to gentle NW
to N winds across the waters of Baja, then becoming gentle N to
NE winds from Baja Sur beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate
seas in mixed swell prevail across these waters. Light to gentle
winds are in the Gulf of California with slight seas, except in
northern portions where fresh SW gap winds and moderate seas
prevail. Farther east, gentle NW winds prevail across the waters
from Las Tres Marias to Puerto Angel, except moderate winds near
the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong N gap winds are
noted in the Tehuantepec region, with seas to 7 ft.
For the forecast, a cold front will move into the Baja Norte
waters early Mon then gradually dissipate across central Baja and
the Gulf of California Tue. Expect light to gentle NW to N winds
across the Baja waters ahead of the front, before winds begin to
freshen Mon evening through Tue. High pressure behind the front
will dominate the region through the rest of the week. Fresh to
strong SW to W gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of
California through Mon night ahead of the front, with winds then
becoming moderate to fresh from the N through the entire Gulf
Tue morning through Wed. Elsewhere between Baja Sur and Puerto
Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas
through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds will
prevail across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through Tue
morning, with seas building to 8 ft during the early morning
hours. Afterwards, moderate and variable winds are expected
through midweek.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo
region and extend downwind to near 90W, producing rough seas.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas in SW swell
prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend beyond the Azuero
Peninsula to 04N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW
swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters.
Scattered moderate convection continues offshore of western
Panama and Costa Rica.
For the forecast, broad high pressure will continue N of the
area through Wed before weakening, and maintain fresh gap winds
pulsing to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours
across the Papagayo region to 90W. Winds up to 30 kt, and seas
up to 9 ft are forecast tonight. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate
northerly winds, pulsing to fresh each night, are expected
throughout the forecast period. Light to gentle winds and
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross- equatorial SW swell
will raise seas to 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands Tue through Wed. Pulses of active convection will
continue across the waters S of 09N through Mon, and will
propagate westward.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge southward through
30N142W and into the area W of 130W. East of the ridge, a cold
front has crossed into the local waters, passing through 30N121W
to 27N128W. A weak ridge prevails ahead of this front and
extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the
ITCZ supports moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 15N
between 98W and 127W, and south of 24N to the west of 128W.
Moderate seas in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across
the area waters, with seas to 7 ft within the trade wind zone
between 95W and 120W.
For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridge will dominate the
weather pattern across the northern forecast waters through
early Mon with little change in winds and seas, before the high
shifts southeast through midweek to strengthen the pressure
gradient modestly. Moderate winds are expected in the trade wind
zone W of 95W through Mon. A weakening cold front across the
northern waters W of 125W will move into the Baja Norte early Mon
then across northern Gulf California late Mon. Moderate N to NE
winds and moderate seas in NW swell are forecast in the wake of
the front.
$$
ERA
