472
AXPZ20 KNHC 200801
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building into
eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front will lead to gale
force gap winds funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf
of Tehuantepec this morning into Fri. Winds may reach 40 to 45
kt tonight and are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong by
Fri afternoon. Seas may reach to around 20 ft by early Fri. Much
more tranquil conditions are forecast into the weekend. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N80W to 05N86W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N86W to 00N115W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 84W and 88W and from
00N to 05N between 131W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A tight pressure gradient is leading to fresh to strong NW winds
in the central and southern Gulf of California, with moderate to
fresh NE winds offshore Baja California. Rough seas dominate
these areas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or less, except for
some locally fresh NW offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 3 to 6
ft, with 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf of California.
For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, fresh winds offshore Baja California will gradually
diminish through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds in
the central and southern Gulf of California will persist today
due to a tight pressure gradient. Meanwhile, NW swell will spread
toward the Revillagigedo Islands through tonight, with fresh
swell from winds off southern California sustaining rough seas
offshore Baja California Norte through Mon. Winds may pulse to
fresh near Cabo Corrientes late this weekend. Looking ahead,
fresh N winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A tight pressure gradient in the western Caribbean is funneling
gap winds through portions of Central America, leading to fresh
locally strong offshore winds in the Papagayo region as well as
the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in those areas. Winds are
moderate or weaker elsewhere with slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through early next week, and near gale-force
during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas in this area
will build to rough at times. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds will pulse from the Gulf of Panama through the Azuero
Peninsula through early Sat, with locally rough seas at times.
Rough seas generated by gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
impact the waters well offshore of Guatemala late tonight into
early Sat. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with slight
to moderate seas.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of
the area and the ITCZ is leading to fresh tradewinds from 04N
to 24N to the west of 115W, with seas of 7 to 11 ft. Winds are
moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas of 4 to 7 ft.
For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will relax
today, allowing winds to decrease to moderate to fresh through
the weekend. Rough seas in NW swell will continue across much of
the open waters today, then retreat to areas mainly W of 130W
into the weekend. Elsewhere, another round of rough seas
generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
impact waters north of 05N and east of 110W tonight into Sat.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach 30N140W early
next week with increasing winds ahead of it and large seas
behind it.
$$
Konarik
