000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090810
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 06.5N80W to 10N89W to
06.5N121W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N122W to 05N134W to
beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05.5N to 08N E of 83.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 93.5W and
117W, and from 02N to 10N between 118W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NW
to N-NW winds off Baja California, east of 1025 mb high pressure
centered near 33N131W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed
4-6 ft seas in NW swell, except to 7 ft just to the NW of Isla
Guadalupe. Moderate northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and
Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and
Cabo Corrientes to 18N, where seas are also 4 to 6 ft. Gentle NW
winds prevail across much of the Gulf of California, then become
moderate northerly winds from the entrance to the Gulf to Cabo
Corrientes, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle breezes and
moderate seas in a mix of NW and SW swell are noted elsewhere to
the east, becoming moderate SW winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms prevail
across the outer waters to the south of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, and
Guerrero.
For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will support moderate
to fresh NW winds and moderate to rough seas in NW swell off
Baja California Norte into Sat evening, before the high pressure
begins to weaken through midweek. The weakened pressure pattern
will support gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters
through Wed. Large NW swell will continue tonight across the
outer waters of Baja Norte and move into the waters just NW of
Isla Guadalupe Sat evening through Sun evening. Looking ahead,
strong gap winds and building seas are expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Tue through Wed night as a cold front moves through
southern Mexico.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated mostly light to gentle
breezes across the offshore waters of Central America and
southward to Ecuador, with fresh E to SE gap winds across the
Papagayo region to south of the Gulf of Fonseca, and moderate
northerly winds spilling across portions of the Gulf of Panama
and to near 05.5N. Combined seas are mostly 4-6 ft except 6 to 8
ft in SW swell south of 02N. Scattered moderate convection
continues across the Gulf of Panama and waters of SW Panama.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at
night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell reaching the
southern waters of the Galapagos Islands tonight to persist through
Sat before subsiding Sat night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Recent scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh
NE trade winds from 05N to 23N west of 115W, to the south of a
1025 mb centered near 33N131W. Recent satellite altimeter
data showed 6-9 ft seas in mixed swell across this area.
Moderate or weaker breezes and 4-6 ft seas are north of 23N,
with gentle breezes and 5-8 ft combined seas in SW swell south
of the ITCZ. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
about the ITCZ W of 100W.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
through Sat evening, before weakening and drifting northward Sun
through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will
support moderate trades, and fresh at times, north of the ITCZ
to about 24N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with
seas of 7-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. Rough
seas are expected in building southerly swell S of the Equator
tonight through early Sun.
$$
Stripling
