000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112027
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N91W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to beyond 07N140W. A second southern
hemispheric ITCZ extends from 04S88W to 04S119W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is occurring within 200 nm on
either side of the boundaries E of 114W, and W of 130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails W of 115W, while lower pressures are
noted over Mexico. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate
NW winds across the nearshore waters N of 22N, while light to
gentle winds are between 11N to 22N. Moderate seas prevail
across these waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of
California with slight seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
across the Tehuantepec region, verified by latest scatterometer
data. Seas are rough in these winds. An upper level trough
shifting eastward into the area is producing multilayered
cloudiness and scattered showers aloft across the Baja Sur
offshore waters, across Baja Sur and into the south and central
Gulf of California.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas
are expected off Baja California through Mon, before winds
freshen modestly as high pressure gradually strengthens across
the region through midweek. Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds
are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through
Mon night, ahead of a couple of weak frontal boundaries that will
approach Baja California Norte. Seas will build up to 5 or 6 ft
with these winds. Elsewhere between Baja and Puerto Angel, winds
will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through the middle
of next week. Pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds will
prevail across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through
early Mon morning, with seas building up to 9 ft during the early
mornings. Afterwards, mainly moderate and variable winds are
expected through midweek.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo
and extend downwind to near 89W, producing rough seas. Moderate
to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail in
the Gulf of Panama, and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to
05N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell
dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Recent
satellite altimeter data indicates that this SW swell is
generating moderate seas between Ecuador and the waters S of the
Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, fresh gap winds are expected to pulse to strong
during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo
region and downwind to 90W through Tue, as broad high pressure
continues to dominate the NW Caribbean. Winds up to 30 kt, and
seas up to 9 ft are forecast this weekend. In the Gulf of
Panama, moderate northerly winds, occasionally fresh, are
expected throughout the forecast period, with periods of stronger
conditions most likely during the weekend. Light to gentle winds
and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross-equatorial SW
swell will raise seas to 6 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands Tue through Wed. Pulses of active convection
will continue across the waters S of 09N through Mon, and will
propagate westward.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak high pressure NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward
into the area, and dominates the forecast area N of 15N and W of
110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. A sharp upper level
trough continues across the area N of 15N between 115W and 130W,
and is inducing unstable conditions, with multilayer clouds and
scattered showers from 20N to 28N between 110W and 122W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh winds N of the
ITCZ to about 14N between 100W and 125W, and south of 24N to the
west of 125W. Moderate seas in mixed NW and S swell generally
prevail across the area waters.
For the forecast, a broad and weak high pressure ridge will
dominate the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters
through early Mon, with little change in winds and seas, before
the high shifts southeast Mon through midweek to strengthen the
pressure gradient modestly. Moderate winds are expected in the
trade wind zone W of 95W through Mon. On Sun, another cold front
will enter the N waters, and likely reach the northern Gulf
California on Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds and moderate seas
are forecast in the wake of the front.
$$
ERA
