079
AXPZ20 KNHC 020911
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 2 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 13N94W to 09N106W. The ITCZ
stretches from 09N106W to 11N127W and to 05N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to
13N and between 101W and 122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad subtropical ridge well northwest of the offshore waters
of Mexico continues to dominate the region. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh
northerly winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja
California, with the strongest winds occurring west of Guadalupe
island. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft north of Punta Eugenia
and 5-8 ft elsewhere in the offshore waters of Baja California.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of California.
However, fresh speeds can be found in parts of the Baja
California coast as wind flows between the mountain passages from
the Pacific waters toward the Gulf waters. Slight seas are found
in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds
will continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with
moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters.
Winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and
Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell
subsides. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja
California Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and
dissipate Mon. Another round of large NW swell may follow the
front.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Favorable conditions aloft and abundant tropical moisture
continue to support scattered showers and strong thunderstorms
over NW Colombia. Some of the storm activity is also affecting
the offshore waters and the Gulf of Panama. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show gentle to moderate southerly
winds over much of the area. The satellite-derived wind data also
captured fresh southerly winds off southern Ecuador and northern
Peru due to funneling. Southerly swell generates seas of 4-6 ft
across the basin, except for slight seas in the Gulf of Panama
and east of 79W.
For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to
moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week,
with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the
remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and and lower
pressures in southern California and the deep tropics result in
moderate to fresh N winds north of 28N and east of 130W. Moderate
to fresh NE-E winds are found in the rest of the basin north of
the ITCZ and west of 125W. Northerly swell support seas of 8-12
ft north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with the highest seas
occurring near 30N123W. A recent altimeter pass captured seas to
11 ft near 30N119w.
Moderate to locally fresh SE-E winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, little change is expected to occur to the
overall weather pattern or resultant conditions into Fri. Winds
and seas will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure
north of the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front.
The front will move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually
weaken as it moves southward across the waters north of 24N
through Mon.
$$
Delgado
