000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310407
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force northerly winds
will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning,
supporting very rough seas as high as 18 ft. However, large seas
in excess of 8 ft will reach as far west as 105W by tonight.
Afterward, gales will prevail through Wed night. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish Thu and Thu night. Marine interests
transiting across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed
should take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine
conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N93W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N93W to 07N107W to 13N120W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection extends from 09N to 21N between 108W
and 114W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
refer to the Special Features section for details.
Fresh NW to N winds are ongoing across the Gulf of California
due to the presence of a strong 1042 mb high pressure over the
Great Basin. Seas are 3 to 6 ft within these wind speeds. Low
pressure to the WNW of the Revillagigedo Islands is causing
fresh to locally strong SE winds across the offshore waters of
Baja California along with scattered moderate convection.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with slight
to moderate seas mainly NW swell.
For the forecast, storm-force northerly winds will continue in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning, supporting very
rough seas as high as 18 ft. Afterward, gales will prevail
through Wed night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Thu and
Thu night. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Great Basin will
weaken and move east, thus diminishing fresh NW winds and
moderate seas in the Gulf of California by Wed morning. Fresh to
locally strong SE winds across the Baja California offshore
waters will lift N of Punta Eugenia late on Wed as a low pressure
W of the Baja offshores moves northward. Showers and
thunderstorms across the Baja offshores will also continue
through late Wed. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough
seas to waters offshore Baja California Norte over the weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong high pressure building N of the region is supporting
fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 89W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are within these
winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama.
For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to
support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo
with moderate to rough seas into Fri night. Winds will pulse
nightly to moderate to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama
through Fri. Rough seas generated by storm-force winds in the
Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through the weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1007 mb surface low is centered near 20N126W. One surface
trough extends NE from the low, while another arches eastward
then SW to 06N136W. E of the low, a broad region of numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 13N to 27N
between 110W and 123W. Fresh winds and moderate to rough dominate
the waters N of 16N and W of 118W in association with this
complex low. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas primarily in NW swell are evident.
For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens
over the next 24 to 36 hours, winds and seas will diminish. A
cold front is forecast to reach the far NW Wed night and move
eastward across the waters north of 25N into Thu. A reinforcing
front will follow later on Thu and with the main front by Thu
evening from 30N134W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong winds are
expected on both sides of the front. Significant NW swell will
follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas.
$$
Ramos
