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AXPZ20 KNHC 271441
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N96W to 10N116W to 09N127W. The ITCZ continues from 09N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N E of 81W, from 04N to 08N between 90W and 98W, from 08N to 10N between 103W and 123W, and from 10N to 12N between 137W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge prevails west of Baja California. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail north of 30N in the Gulf of California. These winds will spread southward across the entire Gulf through Sat evening, and continue through the weekend. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft in the Gulf of California with these winds. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, with locally strong NE winds shooting through the gaps between the higher elevations of Baja and extending 90 nm offshore..

Large NW swell is impacting the waters west of Baja California, with seas 8 ft or greater over these waters. Seas are peaking near 11 ft west of Baja California Norte. Seas will gradually subside through Sat evening, and fall below 8 ft by early Sun.

A strong cold front expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend will induce gale force winds across Tehuantepec beginning early Mon, then diminish below gale force on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region. Moderate S to SW winds are expected elsewhere south of 10N. Moderate cross-equatorial swell will reach Central America with 6 to 7 ft seas later today, then subside Sun through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1027 mb near 38N131W across the waters west of Baja California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough, and in the vicinity of the ITCZ, is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades north of 10N, west of 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft across this area, except 11 ft N of 26N in large NW swell. The NW swell will continue to spread southeastward and slowly decay through the weekend. Looking ahead, another pulse of NW swell is forecast to reach 30N140W Sat night through Sun night, with larger NW swell moving southeast into the area next week.

$$ AL

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