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017
AXPZ20 KNHC 300901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 15.9N 106.9W at 30/0900 UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 104W and 110W. The system's track will turn to the north by tonight followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with a slight increase in forward speed through landfall Monday. The system is forecast to intensify, reaching hurricane intensity tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across eastern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force winds over the Tehuantepec region. Winds will diminish below gale force today as the area of high pressure weakens, which will loosen the pressure gradient. Seas to 14 ft will start to subside today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N91W to 15N99W. It resumes from 14N110W to 13N121W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N east of 85W, and from 12N to 15N between 84W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 110W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 135W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico, with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, mainly gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Mon and diminish to light to gentle Mon night into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh speeds on Fri and diminish back to moderate speeds on Sat. These winds will further diminish to light to gentle on Monday, continuing through Tue. Otherwise, seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to an ongoing gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate NE to E winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over much of the discussion waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the expected conditions over the next couple of days.

$$ AL

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