000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030359
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0325 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A robust ridge over the central
United States continues to produce strong to gale-force N winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The strongest winds are expected on
Tue into Wed, with the pattern persisting into the weekend. Winds
will diminish below gale force early Thu. Rough to very rough
seas will accompany these winds, with peak seas near 15 ft
expected. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N105W. A 1011 mb low
pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 08N92W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N105W to a 1011 mb low pres near 08N128W to
another 1011 mb low pres near 10N137W and to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N
and east of 108W. Similar convection is noted 05N to 09N and
between 113W and 130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section above for information
on gale-force N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A ridge situated west of Baja California Norte extends southeastward
to the Revillagigedo Islands. The moderate pressure gradient
supports gentle to moderate northerly winds in the offshore
waters of Baja California and Gulf of California. Seas of 4-7 ft
are noted in the Baja California offshore waters, with the
highest seas occurring west of Guadalupe Island. Seas of 3-5 ft
are evident in the southern portion of the Gulf of California and
slight seas in the rest of the basin.
In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.
For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, high pressure building over the eastern Pacific
will lead to mainly moderate NW winds and moderate seas across
the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters this week. Winds will
diminish this weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The strong ridge to the north of the region is producing fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and
these winds extend downstream to 92W. This was confirmed by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass, also capturing fresh winds
off the coast of Honduras and El Salvador. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Farther south, moderate southerly winds are noted
south of the monsoon trough, especially north of the equator.
Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, strong NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Papagayo and downstream through much of this week due to a tight
pressure gradient. Winds could approach gale-force Tue into Wed.
Locally rough seas in NE swell look to develop by mid-week in
this region in association with these winds. Winds will
diminish below strong force by late Thu. Farther west, rough
seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
enter waters well offshore of Guatemala by mid-week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge dominates the tropical eastern Pacific, sustaining
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of
120W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W.
Seas are 7-9 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the long-period NW swell will promote rough
seas west of 115W through midweek. Peak seas near 10 ft are
likely in the far western waters. Seas will subside north of 20N
through Tue, and south of 20N by late week. Otherwise, high
pressure will dominate the eastern Pacific, supporting light to
gentle winds north of 20N through midweek. A tradewind regime
will prevail south of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trade
winds occurring west of 110W. Looking ahead, strengthening gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo will
promote fresh NE winds north of 07N and east of 100W over the
next few days. Locally rough seas in NE swell will accompany the
winds.
$$
Delgado
