000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040707
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N89W to 09N103W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N103W to 10N110W to 08N122W to 06.5N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 09N between 90.5W and 94W, and within 15N102W to 12N102W to
07N114W to 06N125W to 12N128W to 10N123W to 10N115W to 14N104W.
Similar convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 137W and
140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec along with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
are in the northern Gulf of California due to a locally tight
pressure gradient where seas are 4-6 ft. Seas are 3 ft or less
across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft in
mainly NW swell dominate the remainder of the waters, along with
gentle winds, except moderate to fresh winds near Cabo San
Lucas. Meanwhile, plentiful moisture is being advected from the
deep tropics south of the Hawaiian Islands to across the north-
central discussion waters and over Baja California to the SW
United States.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas up to 9
ft will last in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning.
Fresh to strong SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the
northern Gulf of California until around sunrise, and then again
tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds
offshore Baja California tonight as a stronger ridge builds
there, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas at times. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected
through the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate in
S-SW swell across the waters, except slight offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface
convergence will prevail across the offshore waters from
Colombia to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, likely
through midweek, continuing to support the development of showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly
winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Tue night, and
then again starting Thu night, mainly during the overnight and
early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through much of the
week. Looking ahead, a set of SW swell may build seas to locally
rough south of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds
across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW
Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters north
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh
trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N between 120W and 140W. Seas
are 6-9 ft there. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh trades, locally strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about
20N and west of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-9 ft across
this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
will prevail elsewhere through the week, except seas building to
rough south of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell.
$$
Lewitsky
