579
AXPZ20 KNHC 081003
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 8 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Barbara has developed offshore of SW Mexico,
centered near 15.2N 102.4W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-18N
between 96W-106W. Strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6
inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. Swells
generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Barbara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600
nm southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico have become
better organized overnight. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form on today
or early this week as it moves NW at 5 to 10 kt. This system has
a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hrs.
Despite of tropical development, gale force winds are expected
with this system by this afternoon.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N94W, then resumes
near 08N117W to 07N126W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between
81W-97W, and along the ITCZ and W of 136W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for information on T.S.
Barbara and the Gale Warning in effect for the area of low
pressure W of Barbara.
A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja
California, with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia
and Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in northwest swell, and
3 to 5 ft primarily in long-period southwest swell off southern
Mexico, with the exception of the strong winds related to the now
T.S. Barbara as described above under Special Features. Seas of
3 ft are over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, outside of Barbara and the gale-low, expect
fresh to strong winds with rough seas over the offshore waters
off Guerrero and Michoacan, with the range of these seas of 8 to
12 ft late this afternoon and into this evening, building to 10
to 15 ft tonight.
These adverse marine conditions will expand westward across the
offshore waters toward Cabo Corrientes through early week as the
systems approach the coast. Mariners should continue to monitor
the latest statements from the National Hurricane Center, and
plan their routes accordingly to avoid the adverse marine
conditions.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it.
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas
across the offshore forecast waters.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish Mon.
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere.
Moderate seas in cross equatorial swell will subside early next
week. Abundant deep tropical moisture will persist across the
region maintaining a high likelihood of additional showers and
thunderstorms for the next few days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas with a component of SW swell are
active north of 05N between 100W and 115W, largely associated
with Invest 91E. Elsewhere weak ridging persists north of 25N,
supporting gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas to 8 ft
persist from 05N to 15N west of 135W in a combination of moderate
tradewind-induced waves and longer period SW swell. Moderate seas
are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, little change is expected through the middle of
week outside of the area near Invest 91 as described in the
Special Features section. Looking ahead, SW winds will increase
into the monsoon trough east of 110W later in the week, with
building seas. This pattern is associated with broad low
pressure that may develop off Central America and the far eastern
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late next week or next weekend.
$$
ERA
