000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012041
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure across eastern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough is supporting strong gale-force winds up to 45 kt,
and seas to near 17 ft, in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will
very gradually diminish, falling below gale-force by Tue
morning. Another gale force gap wind event is possible in
Tehuantepec starting the middle of the week into next weekend.
Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo will reach near-gale to gale-force tonight
through Tue morning as an Arctic high pressure building over the
eastern United States helps tighten the pressure gradient. Seas
will peak near 12 ft with these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N79W to 04.5N98W. The ITCZ
extends from 04.5N98W to 06N120W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 07.5N between 77W and
84.5W, and from 07N to 10.5N between 121W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
early this week. Please see the Special Features section above
for more details.
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are moderate or weaker
with moderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of NW
swell will impact the waters W of the Baja California peninsula
late tonight through Tue. Another set of large NW swell will
enter the waters off Baja California Norte the end of the week,
spreading across the waters W of 110W during the upcoming weekend.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A Gale Warning is expected for the Gulf of Papagayo starting
tonight. Please see the Special Features section above for more
details.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Papagayo region, as well
as in the Gulf of Panama. Rough to very rough seas are well
offshore Guatemala and western El Salvador due to a persistent
and strong gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
just to the W of the waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, a gale-force
gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to
produce rough to very rough seas over the western Guatemala and
El Salvador waters through the early part of the week, and then
again late this week with another gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo gap wind
event will merge with this area to maintain rough and confused
seas early this week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds along
with rough seas will impact the Gulf of Panama through Wed
morning, with similar conditions in the Gulf of Fonseca.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front that was previously analyzed over NW waters has
dissipated to a diffuse trough. The front has ushered in a set
of large NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 14 ft range behind the
front. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the waters
north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
trades north of the ITCZ to near 18N and west of about 120W per
recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and
moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail.
For the forecast, very rough seas greater than 12 ft will
continue to impact the waters N of 18N and W of 130W through
this evening, while surrounding rough seas greater than 8 ft
spreading SE to cover the waters NW of 04N140W to 30N120W by
early Mon before starting to subside below 8 ft by mid-week.
Another set of large NW swell will move into the NW waters Mon
night, and bring rough to very rough seas across the same
general waters through the remainder of the week. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will impact the NW waters much of this week with
a gale-force system just to the NW of 30N140W.
$$
Lewitsky
