000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282119
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
America will continue to funnel winds across the Chivela Pass,
producing N to NE gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu
morning. Winds of 35-40 kt and rough seas were observed this
afternoon across the Tehuantepec region, and similar conditions
will continue through Thursday morning. There will be a brief
reprieve over the Tehuantepec region from Thu afternoon into Fri
afternoon, while the gap winds reduce down to moderate to fresh
speeds. A new strong cold front pushing across the Gulf of
America will usher in another round of gale conditions in the
Tehuantepec region beginning Fri night. These winds may peak as
severe gales with seas as much as 18 ft Sat afternoon and
evening. N to NE gales then look to continue into early next
week.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details
on this event.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 08N84W to
05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from
05-10N between 125W-130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for
more details.
The pressure gradient between surface ridging W of the Baja
Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of
California region supports moderate to fresh NW winds funneling
through the Gulf of California with 2-4 ft seas. These winds were
confirmed by a pair of Metop-B and Metop-C ASCAT passes at 1653
UTC and 1731 UTC, respectively. Aside from the Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of the
Mexican waters are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas in NW
swell. A band of moderate convection is occurring from the
Revillagigedo Islands northeastward to offshore Nayarit, driven
by an upper level trough W of the region.
For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force
moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California before
diminishing Sat night. Large NW swell will reach the waters west
of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri. There is also potential
for another, larger round of NW swell approaching the waters
west of Baja California Norte late this weekend or early next
week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A pair of scatterometer passes between 1500-1600 UTC today
indicated fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continuing over the
Papagayo region with seas of 6-8 ft. N moderate to fresh winds
are also observed over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, the strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is
forcing NW to N swell of up to 10 ft across the Guatemala and El
Salvador offshore waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters,
winds are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the W
Caribbean will force fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the
Papagayo region through Fri morning. After a brief reprieve Fri
afternoon to Sat afternoon, a stronger round of NE to E strong
to near-gale force gap winds will resume over the Papagayo
region Sat night into Sun morning. Gale-force winds are possible
Sunday and Monday. The same high pressure will force moderate to
fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama for the next several
days. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
forcing large NW to N swell spreading across the Guatemala and El
Salvador waters should continue through Thu night. Looking
ahead, a new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very
large NW to N swell over Guatemala/El Salvador waters Sat night
into early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1030 mb high near 33N128W extends a ridge across much of the
remaining Eastern Pacific waters. The relatively weak pressure
gradient between this high and lower pressures in the deep
tropics is forcing generally moderate to fresh E to NE trades
from the Equator to about 20N. An upper level trough is driving
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the ITCZ to about 20N
between 115W and 130W, which are leading to locally strong E to
NE winds per recent scatterometer data. Large NW swell is
impacting our NW corner, northwest of a line from 30N130W to
20N140W. The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forcing
seas of 8-10 ft in N to NW swell down to 03N between 90W-110W.
Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed swell prevail.
For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will
enhance the trades, causing a larger area of fresh to locally
strong NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft from Thu through Fri. The
large NW swell will continue moving southeastward reaching 08N by
Fri and gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front
will reach 30N140W with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the
boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it
moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large
NW swell will follow the cold front and impact the northern
waters this weekend.
$$
Adams
