343
AXPZ20 KNHC 031627 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 03 2025
Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 20.6N 111.7W, or about
170 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 03/1500 UTC, moving
west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the system is devoid of
deep convection. Flossie has been reduced to a swirl of low to
mid-level type clouds, and is expected to maintain a general
west-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next couple
of days. Flossie should continue to steadily weaken, with the
cyclone expected to become a post-tropical low later today and a
remnant low tonight. It should dissipate completely by Sat
evening. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis along 95W from 04N to 17N. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are ahead of the wave from 12N to
15N between 96W and 105W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is along
northwest Colombia westward through northern Panama and southern
Costa Rica to 09N84W to 09N90W to 10N101W to 13N106W to 11N114W
to 08N128W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
07N137W and to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 100W and 105W.
Numerous moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough
between 110W and 116W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Tropical Storm Flossie.
Aside from conditions associated to Tropical Storm Flossie, the
gradient related to high pressure over the offshore waters of
Baja California is maintaining generally gentle to moderate
northwest to north winds over these waters. Seas over these
waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally strong southerly winds
and moderate seas are noted in the central and northern Gulf of
California. Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds and
moderate to locally rough seas are over the southern Gulf of
California due to the influence of Flossie.
Elsewhere, an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass
revealed moderate to fresh easterly winds in the far offshore
waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas due to a tighter pressure gradient
associated with a passing tropical wave. Seas over these waters
are 7-10 ft due to southerly swell. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas continue across the remainder of the offshore
waters of Mexico.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Flossie that is near 20.6N
111.7W, or about 170 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at
03/1500 UTC with a maximum sustained wind speed of 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt and a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb is
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Flossie is forecast to become
post-tropical and move to 21.4N 112.9W this evening with maximum
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, weaken to a remnant low near
22.6N 114.5W Fri morning, move to near 23.6N 116.2W Fri evening,
to near near 24.3N 117.7W Sat morning, and dissipate by Sat
evening. Elsewhere, large swell generated from Flossie will
affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja
California peninsula during the next few days.
Expect fresh to locally strong southeast winds through the Gulf
of California through Fri morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
east to southeast winds and rough seas are possible off Oaxaca
and Guerrero tonight through Fri as an area of low pressure moves
to the west-northwestward and offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico. This area of low pressure is currently associated with
the tropical wave that is along 95W. Gradual development of this
system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast
of Mexico.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to fresh
easterly winds are occurring in the far offshore waters of
Guatemala, El Salvador and also in the Gulf of Papagayo region.
The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and
the tropical wave along 95W 1001 mb is likely to support locally
strong winds in the area. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the area
described. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and
moderate seas are occurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east
winds across the Papagayo region will diminish later today as
the tropical wave along 95W continues westward. Low pressure is
expected to develop downwind of Papagayo and south of
Tehuantepec by tonight, possibly producing fresh to locally
strong winds offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri
morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to large cross-
equatorial south to southwest swell will affect the waters near
the Galapagos Islands today. Moderate or weaker winds are
forecast across the entire region over the weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad high pressure over this part of the region supports
moderate to locally fresh north to northeast winds north of 20N,
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Over the eastern waters, the
pressure gradient associated with a tropical wave and high
pressure to the north is supporting fresh to locally strong winds
and a cross-equatorial swell is sustaining seas to around 10 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.
For the forecast, high pressure will persist to the NW of the
area through the remainder of the week, with little change in
wind strength W of 120W. The dominant marine feature will be the
large southerly swell continuing south of 10N west of 90W
through late this afternoon, followed by another pulse of
moderate SW swell over the weekend. Fresh to strong southwest
winds will remain active for the next several days from 10N to
15N between 105W to 120W, generating waves that will mix with the
longer-period southwest swell in that area.
$$
Aguirre
