079
AXPZ20 KNHC 302101
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms located centered several
hundred nautical miles south southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula are associated with an 1010 mb
area of low pressure near 13.5N115.5W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 114W and 119W.
The latest scatterometer passes indicate winds to gale force
north of the low, and a gale warning has been issued in relation
to this disturbance. While this system still lacks a well-
defined circulation, environmental conditions remain generally
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still
form over the next couple of days. This system is moving towards
the west- northwest at 10 to 15 kt and will be moving towards
cooler waters by this weekend, where additional development is
unlikely after that time. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.
Atlantic basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is currently in the
south-central Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to approach
Central America from the southern Caribbean Sea as a tropical
cyclone by the end of the week, moving across Nicaragua Fri night
into early Sat, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean this weekend
with potential impacts to the Pacific offshore waters zones from
Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala, and then to the offshore
waters of Mexico offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun into Mon.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W from 04N northward,
moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is discussed
in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W/116W from 02N to 19N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure is centered along the
wave and convection is described in the Special Features section
above.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the Papagayo region near 10N85W
to 08N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N125W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N east of
82W, and from 05N to 12N between 88W and 98W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between
120W and 128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to
move across the offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec waters Sun and Sun
night, continuing west-northwest offshore Mexico thereafter.
Fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the area. Seas are 4
to 5 ft across the offshore waters, reaching 7 ft over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range in the Gulf of
California north of the entrance.
For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone
Two, fresh to strong N-NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish to moderate to fresh this afternoon through Fri morning.
Winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will
increase and pulse to moderate to fresh by the end of the week
into the weekend, while a moderate NW swell builds across the
same area.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move
across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat, and then across the
offshore waters of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala this
weekend.
Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region with
enhanced trade wind flow in the SW Caribbean Sea. Gentle to
moderate winds are offshore Ecuador. Mainly gentle winds are
elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters
in southerly swell, reaching 7 ft in the Papagayo region.
For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone
Two, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through Fri morning with little change elsewhere
through the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
low pressure system generating gale force winds centered several
hundred nautical miles south southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.
The remnant 1016 mb low of Celia is located near 24N126W with no
deep convection, moderate winds, and seas around 7 ft. Winds
will continue to diminish as the remnant low opens into a trough
over the next day or two.
High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters
north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are west of a line from 30N122W to 15N140W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft.
For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest
of southwestern Mexico, little change in conditions are forecast
across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early
next week.
$$
AL
