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429
AXPZ20 KNHC 261544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N83W to 08N103W. The monsoon trough continues from 08N103W to low pressure near 09N111W 1010 mb to another low pressure near 09N120W 1011 mb to 06N126W. The ITCZ continues from 06N126W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 77W and 82W, and from 06N to 16N between 105W and 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh NW to N winds are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California this morning with seas of 2-4 ft. The Gulf of Tehuantepec is experiencing strong N winds this morning with seas around 6 ft. Gentle wind speeds are found elsewhere near the coast of Mexico. Seas are 6-7 ft west of Baja California in W to NW swell, and generally 4-6 ft offshore the remainder of Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate northwest swell west of Baja California will slowly subside through Fri. Strong north winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. Thereafter, a strong gap wind event will begin by late Fri afternoon, with winds increasing to gale force Fri evening, as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and lasting through the upcoming weekend. Winds could peak near 45 kt on Sat. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong northwest winds are expected Thu night through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds are likely occurring across the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh N winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to about 05N. Seas are 4-5 ft in these areas. Light to gentle variable winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region tonight through Thu night, then again Sat night through Mon. Winds may pulse to near gale force Sun night. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds will continue in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night, then return to the area Sat night through Mon night. Over the remainder of the area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event will spread to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sat and Sat night building the wave heights to a range of 9-13 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly gentle winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 24N133W to low pressure near 19N135W 1010 mb to 16N140W. Another surface trough extends from 20N126W to 16N129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 23N between 123W and 134W. This activity is shifting east-northeastward. Northwest swell is producing significant wave heights of 6-8 ft across the entire area, west of 110W. Wave heights are 5-6 ft east of 105W to the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the northwest swell will decay through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the basin through Fri. Looking ahead, a surface trough is likely to amplify over the open high seas near 126W/127W during the weekend. It will be accompanied by fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with building seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between 123W-134W. These conditions are expected Sat through Sun night.

$$ Hagen

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