000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022018
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Swell NW Waters: A powerful and complex 993 mb low
pressure system is centered north of the area near 40N136W.
Storm force winds near the low center continue to support very
large NW swell reaching the area waters as far south as 26N and
as far E as 134W, with seas near 30N140W reaching 18 ft. This
swell will continue to propagate SE this weekend, reaching waters
N of 23N and W of 125W Sat, while only slowly subsiding. By late
Sun, seas will fall below 12 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N87W to 06N97W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N97W to 11N130W. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is evident from 02N to 07N east of
82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between
111W and 122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high west of Baja
California Sur and a surface trough along the eastern shores of
the Gulf of California is leading to fresh NW winds from the
southern Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes, as well as
offshore waters near Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, gentle breezes
and moderate seas primarily in NW swell prevail.
For the forecast, fresh NW winds near the entrance to the Gulf of
California and adjacent waters offshore Baja California Sur will
diminish by Sat as the pressure gradient relaxes. Long period NW
swell will bring rough seas to the Baja California offshore
waters Sat night through Mon. Strong gap winds may develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night into Mon.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh NE to E
gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, as high pressure N of the area weakens, winds
in the Papagayo region winds will diminish tonight, but may
return starting Sun night. Nightly pulses of fresh winds are
likely to develop in the Gulf of Panama starting Sun night.
Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere into the middle of next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 23N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas through Sat night.
Strong SW winds are noted within 120 nm east of a cold front
extending from 30N128W to 23N138W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds
and rough seas follow the front as well. A 1018 mb high pressure
is centered near 25N123W. A surface trough is analyzed over the
tropical waters from 12N135W to 19N128W. This trough inducing
scattered moderate convection to its east from 15N to 20N
between 126W and 131W. Fresh W to SW winds and rough seas are S
of 09N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting
mostly gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas primarily in
NW swell.
For the forecast, the cold front will gradually weaken as it
continues to move eastward over the waters north of 23N through
Sat. A reinforcing front will follow, but also weaken as it moves
eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking ahead, another front will
enter the northern waters Mon and approach 120W through late
Tue. These fronts will disrupt the standard subtropical ridge
north of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the
region through early next week.
$$
Konarik
