000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050251
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Swell NW Waters: Very large NW swell persists over
the waters north of 28N between 125W and 135W, associated with a
gale center well north of the region. The very rough seas
induced by this swell will subside below 12 ft later this
evening.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 05N95W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N95W to 08N125W to beyond 09N140W. No
significantconvection is evident at this time.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong northerly gap winds are ongoing over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, associated with high pressure building north of the
area. Farther N, long period NW swell is moving into waters
offshore Baja California Norte, leading to rough seas. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, except for the
Gulf of California where slight seas are present.
For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through tonight, then diminish as the
high pressure to the north weakens. Gap winds are likely to
return briefly Tue night. A weak pressure gradient will support
gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere over Mexican offshore
waters. Long period NW swell will follow a dissipating cold front
moving into the Baja California coastal waters late Mon into Tue,
with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, another
round of large NW swell will impact the waters off Baja
California by mid week following another cold front moving
through the region.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region as well as in the
Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
through Mon night, with moderate to fresh pulses thereafter.
Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will
persist elsewhere.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 28N between 125W and 135W leading to very rough
combined seas through this evening.
A cold front reaches from 30N123W to 23N133W, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Gentle NW breezes follow the front, but 11 to 13 ft NW
swell does as well. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted
elsewhere. Another older group of 8 to 11 ft NW swell persists
from 09N to 20N west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas
elsewhere west of 120W. 3 to 5 ft seas are noted east of 120W.
For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate through Mon along
the Baja California Norte coast. A second front will move into
the waters north of 28N and west of 125W late Mon. The large
swell will subside through Mon, but additional 8 to 10 ft NW
swell will follow this second front across the waters north of
25N through mid week. High pressure building behind the front
will support fresh trade winds and rough seas from 10N to 20N
west of 125W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will
persist elsewhere through mid week.
$$
Christensen
