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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220247
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N76W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 03N100W to 04N113W to low pres near 05N117W to 03N130W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within an area bounded by 16N105W to 09N110W to 07N101W to 02N95W to 02N117W to 07N119W to 16N105W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An weakening cold front extending from the northern Gulf of California near 31N113W to 30N114W to 28N123W is dissipating as it continues to 30N130W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are behind it. Winds west of Baja California will diminish tomorrow. The front has also ushered in a set of NW swell into the waters off Baja California Norte. The swell will continue to build and spread southward across the remaining offshore waters of Baja California. Seas will peak near 14 ft by Fri morning before starting to subside. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover the length of the offshore waters off Baja California by Sat morning, before subsiding below 8 ft Sun.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail across the northern Gulf of California through Fri morning before decreasing.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Sun, with gale conditions possible Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, pulsing to strong Fri night and Sat night. Winds will then strengthen Sun night through Tue night.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama through Mon with seas less than 5 ft. Wind will increase to moderate to fresh Mon night through Tue night as the local pressure gradient tightens.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 10 ft range. NW swell has propagated into the northern waters N of 25N E of 134W. The swell will continue to propagate southward, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N and E of 130W by late Fri before starting to subside.

$$ Lewitsky

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