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192
AXPZ20 KNHC 191526
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1526 UTC Wed Sep 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E centered near 26.3N 110.9W at 19/1500 UTC or 30 nm NE of Loreto Mexico moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Associated scattered moderate to strong convection is in the Gulf of California and adjacent areas from 23N to 29N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 20N to 24.5N between 110W and 112.5W. The depression only has 12 hours or less over water and is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours. Even so, heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 11N93W to 07N110W to 09N118W, then resumes from 16N120W to 13.5N130W to 11N135W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 11N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 03N to the E of 83W, including the Gulf of Panama. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 10N between 88W and 91W, from 12.5N to 16.5N between 94W and 104W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, from 08N to 11N between 100W and 108W, from 07N to 11N between 112W and 115W, and also from 12N to 16N between 120W and 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on newly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E located in the southern Gulf of California.

Elsewhere high pressure NW of the area supports moderate to fresh NW winds W of Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate winds offshore to the S of there. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters W of the peninsula.

A locally tight pressure gradient will support pulsing nocturnal northerly winds to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning, and again tonight into early Thursday morning, with moderate nocturnal winds thereafter.

Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere, except moderate to fresh near Cabo Corrientes mainly at night the next couple of nights.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Offshore nocturnal winds will pulse to moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo Thu night.

Cross-equatorial SW swell with seas of 4 to 7 ft reaching the coast of Central America will gradually subside during the upcoming weekend.

Otherwise, the monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 11N during the next several days, with mainly gentle winds N of the axis, and moderate S of the axis.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Elongated surface troughing extends from near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula to 16N120W where the monsoon trough continues SW-W from there. Ridging extends from NW to SE across the waters N of the trough and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are N of the convergence zone with moderate to locally fresh S of the troughing. The trade winds are supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft across the W central waters. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft by the end of the week as the ridge and troughing break down allowing for the pressure gradient to relax.

$$ Lewitsky



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