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082
AXPZ20 KNHC 180336
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
232 UTC Sat Aug 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Lane centered near 11.8N 135.6W at 0300 UTC, moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted in the N semicircle within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 270 nm of the center. A motion between west and west-northwest is expected during the entire forecast period, and Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin on Saturday. Lane has strengthened into a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours or so, and Lane could become a category 4 hurricane tonight or Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 07N103W to 17N103W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 101W and 108W.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 07N118W to 16N116W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 107W and 120W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 09N89W to 07N96W to 10N105W to 10N122W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 14N between 92W and 100W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending SE from 32N134W to near the Revillagigedo Islands will support gentle to moderate NW winds through early next week.

Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain a light wind regime over the Gulf of California through early next week.

No major gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, though nocturnal northerly drainage flow between 15 and 20 kt is expected tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will hover near 09N the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light to moderate. The only exception is over the Gulf of Papagayo, where winds will pulse to between moderate and fresh each night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Lane.

Otherwise, ridging will extend from NW to SE across the waters N of the intertropical convergence zone during the next several days. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell will prevail.

$$ CAM

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