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AXPZ20 KNHC 201525
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1358 UTC Sat Oct 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Vicente centered near 14.3N 93.6W at 20/1500 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 30 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 92W and 95W. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente will gradually move farther away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today. Vicente will bring abundant and persistent tropical moisture along the coast of southern Mexico, with precipitation guidance suggesting 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, possible across portions of the Pacific coast of southeastern and southern Mexico through the middle of next week. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details.

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa centered near 14.8N 105.7W at 20/1500 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Currently numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of the center with scattered moderate to strong convection noted elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 103W and 109W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N91W. It resumes from 14N95W to 15N102W. Then resumes from 14N110W to 08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08N122W to 08N127W to beyond 11N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 116W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 12N W of 132W.




...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclone Vicente and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander across the offshore waters from 23N117W to 21N106W through Mon. Gentle NW to N flow is expected N of 20N W of 110W through early Tue. The pressure gradient is then forecast to tighten, supporting moderate northerly flow W of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle of next week as large southerly swell propagates N through the waters W of Baja.

Gulf of California: Light, mostly northerly flow is expected through the middle of next week when large southerly swell will reach the southern approach to the gulf waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwesterly to westerly monsoonal flow will dominate the offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh SW winds are expected to develop S of 05N E of 90W on Sat night through Sun night with seas to 9 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander from near 30N135W to 23N117W through the upcoming weekend. Fresh winds, and 7 to 9 ft seas, are observed across the tropical waters from 13N to 19N W of 133W. These conditions will shift W of the area Mon.

$$ AL

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