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AXPZ20 KNHC 212121
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N90W to 09N105W to 07N114W. The ITCZ axis continues from 07N114W to 06N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 78W-90W, from 04N-09N between 98W-117W, from 04N-10N between 120W-132W, and from 03N-06N W of 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, producing moderate NW to N winds across the area. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across most of the forecast region, except 6-8 ft in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia. Long period southerly swell will reach the waters W of Baja California on Thu and combine with NW swell to build seas to 6-7 ft across most of that region.

Gulf of California: Fresh S to SW winds spilling into the northern part of the Gulf this afternoon are expected to increase to 25-30 kt during the late afternoon and evening hours. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft during that time. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh S to SW winds N of 29N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the northern Gulf through Thu night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the region.

Gulf of Tehunatepec: A weak low pressure spinning over the SW Gulf of Mexico supports a northerly gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 30 kt tonight, with seas building to 11 ft downstream of the Gulf to near 13N by early Thu morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure building over the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo area this evening through Fri morning, with associated seas building to 8-9 ft by Thu. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Large, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell will build seas to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through late Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure well north of the forecast area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds from 08N to 30N W of 125W based on latest scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 8 ft across this region. High pressure will gradually weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a cold front approaches from the west. Northerly swell will propagate across the waters north of 28N between 118W and 131W through late Thu, building seas in the northern waters to 8-9 ft. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft Thu night and Fri.

$$ GR

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