AXPZ20 KNHC 162120

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC.


A trough extends from Colombia near 07.5N78W to 08N87W to 06N94W. The ITCZ continues from 06N94W to 08N129W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 85W and 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection remains active from 04N to 09.5N between 119W and 140W.


Moderate to locally fresh NW winds continue along the coast and offshore waters of Baja California today. NW swell moving through the regional waters is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft, with peak seas measured by recent satellite altimeter around 10 ft just W of Socorro Island. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California, where seas have built to 3 to 6 ft. This wind pattern continues between the subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific along about 130W, and lower pressure over central Mexico. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters between Manzanillo and Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds off Baja California will diminish tonight through Wed. The current NW swell moving through the regional waters has peaked and will gradually subside from N to S through Thu, falling below 8 ft late Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Wed. Wind and seas will diminish further Thu through Sat as high pressure weakens west of the area.


Moderate NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters, extending well offshore and becoming fresh between 89W and 92W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds continue in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to 04N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas of 3 to 6 ft in SW swell are noted elsewhere, except 6 to 8 ft seas to the northwest through southeast of the Galapagos Islands, as measured by recent satellite altimeter.

For the forecast, easterly gap winds across the Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to locally fresh tonight through Wed, then diminish to moderate on Thu. Moderate N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will become moderate to fresh again tonight. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist through late Wed. Winds will diminish further Thu through Sat as a weak pressure gradient develops across the local region and the western Caribbean. Another pulse of moderate SW swell late Thu through Sat will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft range.


A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N, covering the waters west of 110W. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 08N and west of 110W. Fresh winds, rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near and to the north of a 1011 mb surface low along the ITCZ near 07.5N129W, supported by a mid to upper trough to its northwest. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft continues to move through the regional waters, and is the dominant swell as far south as 10N, mainly west of 120W. Southern hemispheric S to SW swell is mixing with the northerly swell and with the trade wind flow between 07N and 17N to the W of 120W.

The northerly and southerly swell groups will continue to merge along with shorter period easterly wind waves attributed to the moderate to fresh trade winds, to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas from 08N to 18N west of 118W tonight. Farther east, the plume of E winds and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish, but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 7 to 8 ft south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will subside through late Wed, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas in the trade wind belt from 06N to 14N west of 130W by late week.

$$ Stripling