000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050218
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 07N111W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N111W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-12N and W of 105W,
while scattered showers prevail along the trough.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate to SW
gap winds are in the northern Gulf of California, with seas of 3
ft or less. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell dominate the
remainder of the waters, along with gentle winds, except moderate
to fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Meanwhile, plentiful
moisture is being advected from the deep tropics south of the
Hawaiian Islands to across the north- central discussion waters
and over Baja California to the SW United States.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds and moderate seas are
expected in the northern Gulf of California overnight. Winds
will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja
California tonight as a ridge builds and tightens the pressure
gradient, with strong speeds near Cabo San Lucas at times.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
expected through the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending
downstream to near 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight
offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo
region through Tue night, and then again starting Thu night,
mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell
are expected through much of the week. A set of SW swell may
build seas to rough south of the Galapagos Islands on Fri.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds
across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW
Mexico. A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ to 20N between 130W and 140W. Seas are
6-8 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are noted.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh
trades, strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west
of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-8 ft across this area.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere through the week, except seas building to rough south
of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell.
$$
ERA
