000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081542
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 06N80W to 09N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N100W to 09N110W to 06N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection from 04N to 06N east of
85W, and from 11N to 12N between 93W and 94W. Scattered moderate
convection from 09N to 12N between 102W and 115W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to locally fresh northwesterly winds prevail west of
the Baja California peninsula, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in W-NW
swell, except to near 7 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe. Light to
gentle winds prevail across central portions of the Gulf of
California, while gentle to moderate westerly winds are occurring
across northern portions, and moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds prevail from southern portions of the Gulf to
Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 1 to 2 ft north and central portions of
the Gulf and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the waters east of
Cabo Corrientes to Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will support gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas over much of the forecast
waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend
before weakening Sun and Mon. Large NW swell will move into the
outer waters off Baja California Norte briefly Sat night through
Sun, raising seas to 8 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe during that
time. Looking ahead, strong gap winds and building seas are
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night
as a cold front moves through southern Mexico.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
An overnight OSCAT satellite pass confirmed at least fresh winds
gap winds downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, hinting that
stronger winds were pulsing near the coast. This activity is
likely diminishing this morning. Seas are probably around 6 ft in
the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle breezes are active elsewhere off
Central America and farther south to Ecuador. Combined seas are
4-6 ft except for near 7 ft in SW swell near the Galapagos.
Numerous thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough off
Colombia.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at
night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell to reach
near the Galapagos Islands through Sat.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ,
centered on a 1025 mb high near 32N130W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 23N
and west of 125W, and N to NE winds between 115W and 125W. Seas
are 6-8 ft in W-NW swell across these waters S of 20N, highest
west of 125W, and 4 to 6 ft N of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas in S-SW swell prevails.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
through early Sun before drifting northward and weakening. The
associated pressure gradient will support fresh trades, strong at
times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with seas of 7-8
ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. Rough seas
are expected in building southerly swell S of the Equator today
through Sat evening.
$$
Christensen
