000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290952
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
high pressure surging southward over eastern Mexico and relatively
lower pressure south of Mexico is resulting in 30 to 40 kt north
to northeast gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Seas are currently 10 to 15 ft with these gale winds. These
winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong speeds this
afternoon and continue at those speeds into early on Fri. Seas
will subside to 8 to 11 ft today and to 6 to 8 ft on Fri.
However, arctic high pressure will again build southward over
eastern Mexico beginning Fri, with the gradient again tightening
over southeastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region will reach near gale speeds Fri afternoon and to gale-
force late Fri night, possibly lasting until later in the
weekend. These winds may reach strong gale speeds late on Sat. Seas
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to build to 11 to 17 ft late
on Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details
on this event.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1011 low that is over
northwest Colombia southwestward to south of the Gulf of
Panama near 07N79W, and northwestward to 09N84W, then south-
southwestward to 05N90W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
04N100W to 05N110W to 06N120W to 06N130W and to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 06N between
84W and 87W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
late this morning. See the Special Features section above for more
details.
The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja
Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of
California region supports mostly fresh northwest winds in the
Gulf of California south of 29N as noted in an Ascat-B satellite
data pass from 0427Z last night and also from an Ascat-C
satellite data pass from 0505Z last night. The same scatterometer
satellite data passes indicate light to gentle northwest winds
in the northern section of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the
Gulf. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds
over the remainder of the Mexican waters are northwest to north
in direction, and gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of
4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft east of
98W, where northeast swell generated from the ongoing gale event
has boosted seas over those waters. The scatterometer satellite data
passes also indicated gentle to moderate west to northwest winds
over the offshore waters from Guerrero to southern Jalisco.
Isolated showers are possible from 18N to 21N, from just along
and inland the coast of Mexico west to 108W.
For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, a tight pressure
gradient between high pressure surging southward over eastern Mexico
and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico is resulting in north
to northeast gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
These winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong speeds this
afternoon and continue into early on Fri. A strong cold front that
will move across the Gulf of America will usher in another round of
gale conditions in the Tehuantepec region beginning Fri night. These
winds may peak to strong gale force, with seas possibly reaching to
around 18 ft late on Sat. These conditions may last into Sun night.
For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high pressure
over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force moderate to fresh
northwest winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat
night. Large northwest swell will reach the waters west of Baja
California Norte on today through Fri while slowly decaying. There
is also potential for another set of northwest swell to move through
the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend or early
next week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A 0222Z Ascat satellite data pass depicts fresh to strong northeast
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 88W.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Station 'MRLB" near the coast
in northern Costa Rica is reporting northeast winds of 25 kt.
Moderate to fresh gap winds are in Gulf of Panama area along with
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind gale event is generating northwest to north producing seas up
of to 10 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Over
the remainder of forecast waters, winds are gentle to moderate in
speeds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in northwest to north swell.
Higher seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters
of northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua.
For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the western
Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds
in the Papagayo region through Sat, except reaching near gale speeds
tonight and Sat night into early Sun. Gale-force winds are possible
Sun through Mon. The same high pressure will bring moderate to fresh
north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama for the next several
days. These winds are may reach near gale to gale-force early next
week. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is
spreading large northwest to north swell across the Guatemala and El
Salvador waters, and should continue through this afternoon. Looking
ahead, a new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very
large northwest to north swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador
waters Sat night into early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1028 mb is analyzed north of the area at
33N136.5W. A ridge extends from the high south-southwestward to
near 16N140W. The pressure difference between the ridge and
relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is generally
bringing moderate to fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to near
22N and west of about 118W. Ample moisture east of a broad upper-
level trough is supporting an area of scattered showers and few
thunderstorms from just north of the ITCZ to near 12N and between
114W and 122W. Winds may be gusty at times with this activity. A
set of large northwest swell is moving through the northwest
part of the area, namely northwest of a line from 30N128W to
16N140W. A cold front is about 300 nm west of the northwest
corner of the discussion area. The ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
gap wind gale event has generated seas in the range of 8 to 9 ft
in northwest to north swell south to near to 03N between 94W and
110W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed northeast to east swell
with northwest swell prevail.
For the forecast, the coverage area of the trades will change
through Fri, then begin to decrease starting late on Fri as
the aforementioned cold front continues to weaken through the
weekend as it moves across the northwest part of the area.
The large northwest swell will continue propagating southeastward
reaching 07N by Fri afternoon, but then gradually decay into Sat.
Large to very large northwest swell will follow the cold front
through the waters west of about 130W through the weekend.
$$
Aguirre
