631
AXPZ20 KNHC 200850 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick is centered inland near 18.2N 101.2W
at 20/0600 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. The low-level circulation of Erick
continues to be disrupted by the mountainous terrain across
Guerrero. Numerous showers and moderate thunderstorms continue
over far western Guerrero and Michoacan, and within 120 nm of
the coast, while scattered strong thunderstorms producing heavy
to very heavy rain are occurring well to the northwest and west
of the remnant surface center, across Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed strong east
to southeast winds to 25 kt occurring within 75 nm of the coast
and the near shore waters of western Guerrero and Michoacan.
Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Although seas are
subsiding, rough surf and very strong currents are producing
life- threatening rip current conditions that will continue
overnight. Please consult products from your local weather
office. The remnant low of Erick is expected to continue moving
northwest and gradually dissipate today.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Erick NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N86W to 11N93W, then
resumes near 13N102W to 11N122W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N E of 94.5W,
and from 08N to 16N between 97.5W and 114W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the monsoon
trough between 121W and 137W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for the latest
information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick.
Elsewhere, high pressure is centered well NW of Baja California
along 145W and extends a ridge southeastward to near 23N121W.
This pattern is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds
across the Baja waters north of Punta Abreojos, and moderate or
weaker winds NW winds across the remaining Baja waters to the
south, except for moderate to fresh westerly winds near Cabo San
Lucas. Gentle to moderate westerly winds prevail further south
and southeast, from the Revillagigedo Islands to Cabo Corrientes.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are across much of the Gulf
of California, where slight seas to 3 ft prevail. New northerly
swell has begun to move into the Baja Norte offshore waters
tonight, producing seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia, and
5 to 7 ft elsewhere across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 5
to 6 ft elsewhere across the remaining waters, including the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, outside of the diminishing impacts of Erick,
strong high pressure centered well northwest of the area will
support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds across the
Baja California offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia through
Sun morning before winds there gradually diminish to gentle to
moderate by Tue. N swell will build across the Baja California
waters through Sat evening, then gradually diminish through the
middle of next week. Southerly winds across much of the Gulf of
California tonight will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong
late Fri afternoon through Sat evening.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate SW to W winds prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands tonight, then become moderate or weaker from offshore
Colombia northward to 10N, with moderate seas. Fresh NE gap
winds prevail across the Papagayo region offshore to near 89W.
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed S and SW swell across the
are waters, except to 7 ft offshore of Papagayo.
For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate to fresh through the
upcoming weekend while expanding westward, and will coincide with
an increase in thunderstorm activity across the area waters.
Winds offshore Colombia northward to 10N will be moderate during
this time. North of 10N, expect gap winds across the Papagayo
region to pulse to mostly fresh speeds at night through early
next week, possibly increasing to strong speeds on Mon night.
Moderate seas will prevail across the regional waters through the
forecast period.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad surface ridging extends from a 1031 mb high pressure
center near 37N144W, located well northwest of the discussion
area. The associated ridge extends south and southeastward
across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and
west of about 118W. Mostly moderate to fresh NE trades are north
of about 12N and west of 130W, while moderate to fresh N to NE
winds are north of 20N and between 120W and 130W. Moderate seas 5 to
8 ft in mixed SE and N swell prevail south of 24N, while seas
are building to 8 to 9 ft in new N to NE swell north of 24N, and
9 to 10 ft north of 28N between 118W and 126W. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough along with
moderate seas.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will drift NW
and strengthen slightly through the weekend to maintain the
current wind pattern W of 120W. Seas north of 20N will build
through the weekend as new N to NE swell propagates through
these waters, spreading seas of 8 ft from the northeastern waters to
140W from Fri from Fri afternoon through Sun evening before
subsiding.
$$
Stripling
