492
AXPZ20 KNHC 020401
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Nov 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the
Gulf of America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico
and the Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong winds will funnel
through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
resume, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by Sun
afternoon and gale force winds by Sun evening with seas reaching
very rough ranges Sun night through Tue. Gales will prevail
through Tue night, however strong to near gale force winds will
gradually diminish through Thu evening. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to a 1010 mb low near
12N112W to 10N118W. The ITCZ stretches from that point to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to
12N and E of 101W, from 08N to 15N between 102W and 122W, and
from 05N to 13N W of 122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting
moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, except for slight
seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Gulf of
America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico and
the Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong winds will funnel
through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
resume, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by Sun
afternoon and gale force winds by Sun evening with seas reaching
very rough ranges Sun night through Tue. Gales will prevail
through Tue night, however strong to near gale force winds will
gradually diminish through Thu evening. Otherwise, long period NW
swell will move into the Baja California Norte offshore waters
by Sun morning, and spread to Cabo San Lucas by Sun night before
gradually subsiding through Tue evening. A second set of large NW
swell is forecast to enter the waters N of Punta Eugenia late
Thu.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Papagayo with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are elsewhere across the Central America offshores.
Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to
moderate from the SE to S, and seas are rough in long period SW
swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds and moderate seas are
expected to pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu. Cross-
equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional
waters and will gradually subside on Sun. The next strong
Tehuantepec gap wind event will result in moderate N winds and
moderate to rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador Mon through early Wed.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1025 mb high pressure centered near 32N133W extends a ridge
across the E Pacific subtropical waters. Long period NW swell
continues to spread across the waters N of 20N and W of 120W ahead
of a cold front NW of the region. Rough seas in the 8 to 11 ft
range are associated with this swell event. Moderate or weaker
winds and seas are elsewhere N and south of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough W of 100W. East of 110W, long-period SW swell with rough
seas to 9 ft are south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 97W.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters
W of 120W into early next week. Cross-equatorial SW swell E of
100W will subside by Sun evening. The large NW swell will
continue to spread SE through Mon night and then gradually
subside late Tue. A cold front will enter the NW region Tue night
preceded by fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Otherwise,
shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of
the Baja California Peninsula has increased during the past
several hours. However, any additional development of this system
appear unlikely as it moves slowly westward across the central
part of the eastern Pacific during the few couple of days.
$$
Ramos
