678
AXPZ20 KNHC 260859
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Sonia is centered near 13.4N 119.5W at 26/0900
UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Seas near the center are peaking around 16 ft (5 M). Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 10N to 18N
and between 112W and 122W. Sonia is moving toward the west and a
turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and that
motion should continue through Monday. Some strengthening is
forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected by early
next week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Sonia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis along 101W, south of 17N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the trough axis.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N85W and continues westward to 11N95W and to a 1011 mb low pres
near 09N105W and to 12N109W. The monsoon trough continues from
12N122W to 09N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N130W to beyond
07N140W. Aside for the convection associated with Sonia,
scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 13N and
between 88W and 112W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The Mexican offshore waters remain under the influence of a
subtropical ridge located well north of Hawaii. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally
fresh NW-N winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja
California. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with the highest
seas occurring north of Punta Eugenia. The satellite-derived wind
data also captured moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the
southern Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, including the rest of the
Gulf of California and Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Baja California offshore waters
through the middle of the work week, supporting moderate to
locally fresh NW winds. Rough seas, in NW swell, will persist
across the outer forecast waters with seas building to 11 ft N
of Punta Eugenia as additional pulses of long period NW swell
reach the area. This swell event will gradually subside on Tue.
The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected
tonight into Mon night with winds reaching 25 kt. Thereafter, a
strong cold front will move across the Gulf of America by
midweek, supporting strong to possibly gale-force N winds and
rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Wed into late this week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Onshore moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds continue south of
the monsoon trough, including the Gulf of Panama. Seas in these
waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail. A few showers are noted off Costa Rica and
Panama.
For the forecast, onshore westerly wind flow and moderate seas is
expected through Tuesday in response to the broad cyclonic
circulation associated to Hurricane Melissa located in the
central Caribbean Sea. Winds and seas will diminish thereafter.
Meanwhile, rough seas will reach the far offshore waters of
Guatemala due to a strong gap wind event in Tehuantepec and winds
will freshen up in the Papagayo region by the end of the week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
Tropical Storm Sonia located well SW of Baja California.
Sonia continues to move slowly westward over the eastern waters,
while a frontal trough remains over the far NW waters. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical
ridge centered well NW of the area. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass confirmed that moderate to locally fresh NE winds
are present over much of the waters north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ. A long-period NW swell is producing seas of 8-11 ft
across these waters. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to
dominate the N waters today into early this week while Tropical
Storm Sonia moves westward. The aforementioned swell event will
continue to propagate southeastward and has merged with swell
generated by Sonia. Tropical Storm Sonia is near 13.4N 119.5W at
2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 1002 mb. Sonia will move to 13.5N 119.9W this afternoon, 13.9N
120.6W Mon morning, 14.3N 121.6W Mon afternoon, 14.7N 122.8W Tue
morning, 14.8N 124.3W Tue afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low
near 14.9N 126.0W Wed morning. Sonia will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 14.5N 129.7W early Thu.
$$
Delgado
