260
AXPZ20 KNHC 122338 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...Correction
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 12 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
Corrected to add the Special Features section
...SPECIAL FEATURES....
The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to
begin by Mon evening, reaching minimal gale force mainly during
the overnight and early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas
are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N100W to 08N111W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N111W to 05N132W to beyond 06N140W.
Convection is limited.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
refer to the Special Features section for more details.
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
while a trough is over NW Mexico. This weather pattern is supporting
fresh to strong NW winds, with seas of 5 to 8 ft across the
northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas are noted across the remainder of the Gulf. Recent satellite
derived wind data indicate gentle to moderate NW winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW
swell are affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia while seas of
5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere across the Mexican offshore
waters.
For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally
fresh NW to N winds. Rough seas N of Punta Eugenia will subside
below 8 ft on Mon. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds with building
seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected in the Gulf of California early
this week as high pressure becomes established over the Great
Basin of the United States.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf
of Papagayo as troughing prevails in the west-central Caribbean
and air funnels through the Cordillera Mountains and over Lake
Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America
offshore waters.
For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
occur across the Gulf of Papagayo early this week. Then, fresh
to strong winds and building seas to 8 ft are expected Tue night
through Wed night as high pressure builds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas generated in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will
propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador by mid-week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate N winds will
occur in the Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
across the remainder of the offshore forecast waters probably
through Fri.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A strong high pressure of 1038 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W.
Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system,
fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring N of 28N between 124W
and 131W. Seas of 9 to 11 ft are within these winds. In addition,
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer data
N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 130W with an area of fresh to
locally strong trades from 13N to 16N. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 105W
while light to gentle winds are to the south. Long period NW
swell dominates the entire forecast area, reaching as far E as
the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. This swell event is
generating seas of 8 to 11 ft across most of the waters N of 23N
and W of 118W as well as the area from 06N to 20N and W of 125W.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis
and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. The
pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support fresh to
strong N to NE winds and rough seas across the north-central
waters through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across the forecast region. Additional pulses of long
period NW swell are currently reaching the NW corner of the
forecast area. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the
waters N of 22N and W of 118W by Mon morning. A surface trough
will develop W of Baja California Norte on Mon and move westward
through mid-week. The pressure gradient between the trough and
high pressure to the N will support fresh to strong winds on
either side of the trough axis on Tue.
$$
GR
