000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171543
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1543 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move
southeastward across the NW and north-central waters this
morning, behind and just ahead of a cold front which extends
from the central Gulf of California to 26N113W to 17N123W. Seas
of 12 ft and greater cover the waters N of 24N and W of 120W,
peaking around 15 ft near 30N126W. Very rough seas of 12 ft and
greater will continue to propagate southeastward this morning,
then will begin to slowly subside during the afternoon. Seas will
then continue to subside to less than 12 ft this evening, before
new N swell enters the northern waters by early Wed, raising
seas above 12 ft across the waters N of 26N between 117W and 140W
by Wed evening, and spreading southward into early Thu before
slowly subsiding to less than 12 ft Thu night. Looking ahead,
another significant and large NW swell event is possible in the
NW waters late in the upcoming weekend into early next week.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 07.5N78W to 05.5N85W. The ITCZ extends
from 05.5N85W to 00N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01S to 3N between 101W and 117W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the central Gulf of California to
26N113W to 17N123W. Fresh to strong SW winds are in the central Gulf
of California ahead of the front, with moderate to fresh NW
winds behind the front offshore Baja California Norte N of 31N.
A gale warning is in place just N of 30N in the San Diego coastal
waters for early today and again tonight. Building seas in rough
to very rough NW swell are arriving behind the front. Fresh to
strong N gap winds are in Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data. Winds are moderate or weaker across the
remainder of the waters with moderate seas, except locally fresh
winds near Cabo Corrientes, and slight seas in the central and
southern Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the cold front from the far central Gulf of
California to off Baja California will gradually dissipate
through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front
and in the northern Gulf of California will persist through
the afternoon. High pressure will build in across the area
waters in the wake of the front through Fri, producing fresh to
locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California to near
Cabo Corrientes Wed through Thu night. Strong to near gale-force
W to SW winds will develop again across the northern Gulf of
California early Wed through Wed evening, then again Thu night
into early Fri due to localized troughing. NW swell will continue
to build across the waters of Baja California through Wed, then
become reinforced Wed night through the end of the week, decaying
during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds will continue
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Looking ahead, long
range model guidance indicates the potential for at least a
strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week,
although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Please stay
tuned as we get closer to this next potential event.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across the
Papagayo region along with 4 to 6 ft seas, while moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of
Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds
are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere, locally to 5 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate
seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure
builds across Central America from the north, continuing through
early Thu, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate N
to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama
to south of the Azuero Peninsula through mid-week. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change
little through the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters.
A cold front extends from the central Gulf of California to
26N113W to 17N123W. Fresh to strong W-NW winds are N of 28.5N
between 119W and 123W. Fresh to strong NE trades are found from
09N to 22N between 121W and 140W. Winds are mainly moderate or
weaker across the remainder of the open waters. Rough seas are W
of a line from 30N115W to 20N126W to 09N140W with very rough
seas as described above. Seas are moderate elsewhere. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 06.5N to
17N between 132W and 140W in association to a surface trough.
For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward
today while weakening, with fresh to strong winds behind it
diminishing through the morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front today through Fri as a low to middle-level
disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will
produce a broad area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the
ITCZ to near 24N and W of 128W tonight through early Fri, along
with rough to very rough seas. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to
accompany these increasing trades. Marine conditions should
improve by the end of the week and into the weekend as the
disturbance dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens.
$$
KRV
