994
AXNT20 KNHC 102219
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
broad western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower
pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong
trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
Sea through the middle of the week. These trades are forecast to
reach near-gale to gale-force tonight off northwest Colombia with
seas building to a peak of 12 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 20W south
of 10N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 01N to 05N between the wave and 25W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W south of
10N to inland the central portion of Suriname. It is moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm east of the wave from 06N to 10N, and within 60 nm west of
the wave from 06N to 09N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau to 05N16W and to 02N23W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues southwestward to beyond 00N25W to 04S34W
and to inland Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection
is well south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 03N between
06W-13W, also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W-50W, and
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 38W-45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A trough extends from southeastern Louisiana to just east
of South Texas while another a trough extends from northeast
Florida southwestward to near Cedar Key, Florida and to near
27N88W. In the southwest part of the basin, a 1009 mb low
is near 21N97W, with a trough extending to Tampico and another
trough that reaches from the low to just east of Veracruz,
Mexico. The atmosphere remains very moist and unstable to the
south and east of these troughs. In addition, a well pronounced
subtropical jet stream branch stretches from the eastern Pacific
northeastward across the basin contributing to the atmospheric
instability. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
seen from 19N to 25N between 91W and 95W, including the central Bay
of Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere
between a line from 30N91W to Veracruz and 87W and also north of 26N
east of 87W. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient is generally
allowing for light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida, and for gentle to moderate southeast to
south winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite
data passes and recent buoy observations indicate seas of 2 to 4 ft
throughout, except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft over the northeast
part of the basin.
For the forecast, the low will continue to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf into Mon.
Fresh to strong southeast winds will pulse each evening offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough moves off the coast. A
cold front will move off the Texas coast early Mon morning, with
thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will move southeastward
and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then
stall over the far southeast part of the basin Wed. Ahead of the
front, fresh to locally strong southeast winds will pulse tonight
and Mon night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough
moves offshore.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section above for information
about expected gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight.
Fresh to strong trades are over the south-central portion of
the basin per latest scatterometer satellite data. Seas with
these winds are in the range of 8 to 12 ft. Similar seas are
to the west from 11N to 15N between 76W and 80W. The scatterometer
satellite data also reveals mostly fresh trades over just about
the remainder of the basin, except south of 11N between the coast
of Colombia and Central America, where trades are lighter, gentle
to moderate in speeds, and seas are 6 to 9 ft in northeast swell.
Moderate southeast winds are between Cuba and Jamaica and
south of Cuba to 19N between Jamaica and 84W. Seas with these
winds are 4 to 6 ft per a recent altimeter satellite data pass.
Seas of about 4 to 7 ft are elsewhere, except for higher seas of
6 to 9 ft in east to southeast swell north of 15N east of 72W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have recently developed
over most of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Feature section,
a tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trades
along with rough seas in the south-central portion of the sea
through late in the week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong
winds and locally rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected across the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean through at least the middle portion of the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The ingredients consisting of mid-level disturbances and a
stationary front off the Georgia coast is resulting in
abundant atmospheric instability that is bringing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection off the Florida coast
north of about 29N and spreading eastward to near 72W. Gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
north of 25N between 70W and the Florida coast. To the east, the
pressure gradient related to a broad subtropical ridge is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of
25N between 35W and 70W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east-
southeast winds are from 15N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas.
Seas are about 5 to 6 ft in these areas. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the
basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of
the basin, with the pressure gradient between it and lower
pressure in the Caribbean expected to support fresh to locally
strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. A cold
front is expected to reach the waters off northeastern Florida
Mon night, and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh
to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front
before it weakens and conditions improve Tue night. Along and
ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, are expected.
Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the central
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh southeast to south
winds and moderate to rough seas easts of about 70W.
$$
Aguirre
