000
AXNT20 KNHC 110449
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a Bermuda
High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across
the eastern Caribbean through tonight, and the central part of the
basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia
will pulse to minimal gale-force during the night-time hours tonight
and to near-gale force on Wed night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected
with these strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 12/0000 UTC at least.
Very rough seas to around 12 ft (4 m) are likely with these winds.
Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 02N21W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44.5W. Scattered
moderate is noted S of 05N between 10W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida
into the Gulf region. A 1023 mb high pressure is located over the
NE Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE
to S winds and 3 to 6 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle
to moderate E to SE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas over the eastern
Gulf, with the exception of fresh to locally strong E winds and
moderate seas in the Straits of Florida. Mostly cloudy skies are
noted over the NW Gulf and the coast of Texas.
For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the basin
will prevail through Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to
fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near
the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and
slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will
be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front will impact the
northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the
Gulf waters through Thu night, stalling and dissipating over the
SE Gulf Fri and Fri night. In the wake of the front, winds will
increase to fresh to near gale-force speeds and seas will build to
8 to 11 ft through Thu night, with conditions improving thereafter
as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin. Another cold front
may approach early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade winds
across the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across
the eastern part of the basin. Similar wind speeds are also
observed in the lee of central Cuba. These winds are the result
of the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and the Atlantic
ridge. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Rough
seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia, and are a bit more moderate at 6 to 8 ft in
the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate seas
are noted in the NW Caribbean. Locally rough seas are near Atlantic
passages in E swell. A sharp upper-level trough extending from
the SE Bahamas to Nicaragua is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean, mainly N of 15N.
This convective activity is affecting parts of eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola (more concentrated in Haiti), and Jamaica.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across
the eastern basin through tonight, and the central basin through
Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to
gale- force during the night-time hours tonight and to near-gale
on Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will linger in the S-central
Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti
through Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly
trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough
seas near the Lesser Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions
will improve slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as
the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching
the NW Caribbean. High pressure will build across the Atlantic by
the end of the weekend with fresh to strong trades and building
seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and
central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered east
of Bermuda to the coasts of northeast Florida and Georgia. This
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas south of 25N and west of 55W, and light to gentle
anticyclonic flow and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere. Farther east, a
surface trough is along roughly 46W from 20N to 30N, associated
with an upper- level low over that area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with the upper low and surface trough are
active from 22N to 25N between 35W and 41W. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are seen on the E side of the trough
axis. Strong upper-level winds are also supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Fresh to strong NE winds are observed per scatterometer data N of
20N E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are
with these winds based on altimeter data. In the tropical
Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas
prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through Wed, reaching strong speeds
north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Moderate
or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region through
Wed. Southerly fresh to strong winds will develop off northern
Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That front will move
offshore Thu evening with fresh to strong winds and building seas
behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across the basin
for the end of the week into the weekend, with moderate to fresh
trades dominating the basin by the end of the weekend, and rough
seas over the SE waters.
$$
GR
