261
AXPZ20 KNHC 250844
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is near 102W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 14N between 100W to 106W.
A tropical wave axis is near 127W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 10N between 124W to 130W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 110W and
123W, and scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to
23N and W of 132W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the area.
A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 29N112W, with surface
trough extending from 32N114W to the low to 26N110W. Surface
ridging covers the waters offshore of the peninsula. Fresh to
strong N to NW winds and moderate seas prevail offshore of Baja
as a result of this pressure gradient. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds and moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Moderate or weaker winds prevail over the rest of the waters.
Altimeter satellite data show moderate seas in SW swell offshore
of southern Mexico, and slight seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will continue offshore
of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through this weekend
as the pressure gradient builds between troughing over the Gulf
of California and high pressure to the west remains in place.
Rough seas in NW swell may accompany these winds. Winds and seas
will diminish early next week. Fresh N winds will pulse each
night and morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun morning.
Strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas are expected in
this region Sun night into next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure
prevails over northwestern Colombia. Moderate E winds extend
beyond the Papagayo region through the waters offshore of El
Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, scattered showers and
thunderstorms offshore of Panama, with gusty winds and building
seas likely near convection. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds
prevail south of the monsoon trough. Moderate seas in SW swell
are noted through the regional waters.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into next week as low pressure
prevails in the south-central Caribbean. Light E winds will
prevail through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala
through the weekend. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will
continue south of the monsoon trough through this weekend.
Moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the Central and
South American waters into next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
Surface ridging extends through much of the waters north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Light to gentle winds are noted north of
25N and west of 125W, with moderate seas. Farther south,
moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas from 10N to 20N west of
115W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring south
of the monsoon trough. Rough seas in SE swell are noted south of
05N and west of 120W, with moderate seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 25N, with moderate winds
expanding farther north this weekend as high pressure
strengthens north of the area. Rough seas generated by fresh
winds will occur from 10N to 15N west of 125W through this
weekend, and additional rough seas may develop south of the ITCZ.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands continue. Some gradual development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15
kt. There is a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours,
and a medium chance within the next 7 days.
$$
ERA
