000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192141
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging will
build southward along eastern Mexico in the wake of a late-
season cold front that is moving across the Gulf of America. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower
pressure south of Mexico will tighten enough to support a brief
occurrence of gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight into Mon morning. The gradient will then
relax enough as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward
during Mon allowing for the gale winds to diminish to strong
speeds. Seas with this upcoming gale event are expected to peak
to around 11 or 12 ft. Lingering rough seas will subside late
Mon. Marine interests transiting through, or near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous
marine conditions over the affected waters.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from low pressure in northwest Colombia
southwestward to 08N83W to low pressure at 04N95W 1011 mb and to
04N106W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N121W to 05N132W
and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 125W-130W,
and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W-122W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the 1011 mb low and within
30 nm of the ITCZ between 130W-132W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
on a soon to begin gap wind gale-event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Relatively weak high pressure is over the area. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over
Mexico is generally supporting gentle to moderate northwest winds
west of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere over the
Pacific, winds are moderate or weaker in speeds. Seas are 3 to 5
ft over the offshore waters, with northwest swell west of Baja
California and in mixed south and northwest swell elsewhere.
Mostly gentle southeast to south winds are in the Gulf of
California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf.
For the forecast, aside from the upcoming Tehuantepec gale
event, rather quiet conditions will remain over the forecast
waters through Tue. A set of northwest swell will move through
the waters west of Baja California Norte Tue night into Wed, but
it will be subsiding as it does. Seas are expected to peak to
around 8 ft with this swell. Fresh to locally strong northwest
winds are forecast over the Pacific waters of Baja California
beginning Wed night. Northwest winds will pulse to moderate to
fresh speeds at night offshore southwestern Mexico Tue through
Fri. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds
are expected through the end of the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are just south of
the Gulf Panama and reach southward to near 05N. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over these
waters. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft also due to a long-period south to
southwest swell.
Numerous moderate convection is south of 01S between 85W and 90W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident from 05N to 08N
between 84W and 87W. Isolated showers and patches of light are in
the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Isolated showers are
elsewhere south of 09N between 82W and 90W and south of 05N
between Colombia and 84W.
For the forecast, winds may pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region late at night and into the mornings through Tue.
Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected to hold over
the Central American and the equatorial waters for the next few
days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A late-season cold front is over the northwest part of the area
along a position from near 30N131W to 26N140W. It is preceded by
moderate to fresh southwest winds north 29N and east to near
130W, and followed by mostly fresh northwest to north winds as
noted in recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are 4 to
5 ft with these winds. High pressure ridging is building
southeastward behind the front while relatively weak high
pressure is to its southeast reaching east to near 117W and
south to near 18N. A weak pressure gradient between the ridge and
relatively lower pressure to its south associated to the ITCZ is
sustaining an area of moderate to locally fresh northeast trades
over the western part of the domain from 13N to 18N west of
about 133W, and from 14N to 16N between 125W and 133W. Seas
within these trades are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.
For the forecast, little overall change is expected in the present
synoptic pattern into early part of the week, with respect to
winds and seas. The aforementioned cold front will move east-
southeastward and weaken as moves across the north-central and
northeast forecast waters from late Mon through Tue. The main
impacts from this front will be from a set of large northwest to
north swell that will trail the front as seas are expected to
build to a maximum of 12 or 13 ft on Mon night over the far
northwest waters. Seas of 8 ft and greater will reach to a line
from near 30N120W to 22N130W and to 21N140W by late Tue, then
begin to subside through Wed.
$$
Aguirre
