219
AXPZ20 KNHC 110901
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09.5N75W to 04N82W to 07N88W to 04.5N95W.
The ITCZ continues from 04.5N95W to 04.5N114W 08N133W to beyond
06N140W. A second southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from
03.4S110W to beyond 01.5S120W. Scattered strong convection is
occurring from 02N to 07.5N east of 79.5W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between
81W and 93W, and near the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 96W and
135W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak high pressure offshore of central Baja California near 120W
extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of SW Mexico. This
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the
nearshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, except locally fresh
winds near Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW winds wrap around Baja
Sur and become westerly across the entrance into the Gulf of
California. Light to gentle winds are farther offshore. Seas
across the area waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.
Light to gentle NW to W winds prevail across the remaining waters
of Mexico eastward to Puerto Angel, with moderate seas 4 to 5 ft
in SW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of
California, except across far N portions where fresh westerly gap
winds have developed. Strong N gap winds have begun to expand
downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, downwind to 14.5N. Seas
there are 6 to 9 ft with these winds, as recently confirmed by
satellite altimeter data. An upper level trough shifting eastward
into the area is producing multilayered cloudiness and scattered
showers aloft across the Baja Sur offshore waters, across Baja
Sur and into the south and central Gulf of California.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas
are expected off Baja California through Mon, before winds
freshen modestly as high pressure gradually strengthens across
the region through mid-week. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap
winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight
through Mon night, ahead of a couple of weak frontal boundaries
that will approach Baja California Norte. Seas will build up to
5 or 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere between Baja and Puerto
Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas
through the middle of next week. Pulsing fresh to strong
northerly gap winds are expected across and downwind of the
Tehuantepec region through early Mon morning, with seas building
up to 9 ft during the early mornings. Afterwards, mainly moderate
and variable winds are expected through Wed.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of
Papagayo and extend downwind to near 89W tonight, producing seas
of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas
of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and
extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 05N. Strong convection
has developed across NW Colombia tonight and has shifted westward
into the waters E of 79.5W there. Meanwhile scattered moderate
convection extends from the waters of western Panama and Costa
Rica southwestward. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and
moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore
forecast waters. Recent satellite altimeter data indicates that
this SW swell is generating seas of 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and
the waters S of the Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, fresh gap winds are expected to pulse to strong
during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo
region and downwind to 90W through Tue, as broad high pressure
continues to dominate the NW Caribbean. Winds up to 30 kt, and
seas up to 9 ft are forecast this upcoming weekend. In the Gulf
of Panama, moderate northerly winds, occasionally fresh, are
expected throughout the forecast period, with periods of stronger
conditions most likely during this weekend. Light to gentle
winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross-equatorial
SW swell will raise seas to 6 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands Tue through Wed. Pulses of active convection
will continue across the waters S of 09N through Mon, and will
propagate westward.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak high pressure NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward
into the area, and dominates the forecast area N of 15N and W of
110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. A sharp upper level
trough continues across the area N of 15N tonight between 115W
and 130W, and is inducing unstable conditions, with multilayer
clouds and scattered showers from 20N to 28N between 110W and
122W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to locally fresh
winds N of the ITCZ to about 14N between 100W and 125W, and south
of 24N to the west of 125W. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed
NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters.
For the forecast, a broad and weak high pressure ridge will
dominate the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters
through early Mon, with little change in winds and seas, before
the high shifts southeast Mon through midweek to strengthen the
pressure gradient modestly. Mainly moderate winds are expected in
the trade wind zone W of 95W through Mon. On Sun, another cold
front will enter the N waters, and likely reach the northern Gulf
California on Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds and moderate seas
are forecast in the wake of the front.
$$
Stripling
