000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032106
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from near the Costa Rica/Panama border
to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 06N120W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to
11N between 80W and 113W. Similar convective activity is also
noted from 08N to 11N between 123W and 128W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of fresh to
strong N winds across the Tehuantepec area. As a result, the Gale
Warning is allowed to expire at 18Z. A ridge dominates the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to
locally moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. In the Gulf
of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight seas
are noted, except N of 30N where moderate to fresh S winds are
observed with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere along the Mexican
forecast waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swells prevail.
For the forecast, the late-season gap wind event in the Tehuantepec
region, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 9 ft will
last through Mon morning. Then, winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kt,
with seas of 6 to 7 ft on Mon afternoon. Otherwise, fresh to strong
S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf
of California this evening and tonight. Winds will increase to
moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California beginning on
Tue night as a stronger ridge builds there. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell
dominate all the offshore forecast zones. Meanwhile, scattered
moderate convection continues to develop across the region from
Colombia to Nicaragua. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
higher seas are likely near thunderstorms.
For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence
will persist across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua,
including the Gulf of Panama, likely through midweek, continuing
to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across
the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds are expected in the
Papagayo region tonight through Tue, mainly during the overnight
and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through
at least midweek.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds
across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW
Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters N of
15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds
mainly W of 120W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Recent
scatterometer and altimeter data confirmed the presence of these
wind speeds and sea heights. Elsewhere under the influence of
the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted.
High pressure N of the area is going to tighten the pressure
gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the
ITCZ to about 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to fresh
to strong speeds tonight through Tue, also sustaining the rough
seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support
moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the week.
$$
GR
