000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310317
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07.5N77.5W to 09N86W to 03N100W to
04N106W. The ITCZ extends from 04N106W to 04N120W to 07N132W to
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02S to 03.4S between 88W and 94W, and from 02N to
08N between 128W and 139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 09N between 90W and 108W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh N gap winds are in the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec due to a lingering locally tight pressure gradient.
Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted near Cabo San Lucas,
as well as in the northern Gulf of California from 29N to 31N.
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters.
Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters with slight seas in
the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will pulse to strong locally tonight, diminishing by
Tue afternoon. Moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of
California will increase to fresh to strong Tue night before
diminishing. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Cabo San
Lucas and near Cabo Corrientes at times through mid-week.
Moderate to fresh NW winds will dominate offshore Baja California
by the end of the week as high pressure builds W of the
peninsula. Moderate seas will dominate the offshore through the
remainder of the week, except building locally to rough off Baja
California Norte Fri through Sat night. Slight seas will prevail
in the Gulf of California, except briefly to moderate in the
northern Gulf with the fresh to strong winds.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds prevail over the Papagayo
region, with moderate to fresh winds reaching SW-W to near
09N92W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail from the Gulf of
Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are mainly light to
gentle elsewhere. Slight seas are offshore Colombia with moderate
seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh NE-E winds will pulse to strong across
and downwind of the Papagayo region to near 90W through early
Wed with locally rough seas, with winds becoming moderate to
fresh thereafter. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate N-NE winds will
continue to pulse to fresh at night through Tue night. Slight to
moderate seas will prevail through Tue night. Large S-SW swell
will spread into the waters from offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands Wed morning and reach the remaining area waters
and Central American coasts on Thu. This swell will build seas to
rough from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through Thu.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak remnant frontal trough extends over the NW waters from
near 30N134W to 23.5N140W. This feature has weakened high
pressure with light to gentle winds dominating the waters N of
18N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the open
waters. N to NE swell generated by a now ended gale-force gap
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have spread SW to near
08N103W with locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate seas in
mixed swell prevail across the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will dominate the open
waters through mid-week as weak high pressure across much of the
area slowly builds into the Baja California waters. A series of
weak frontal boundaries will move into the NW waters and weaken W
of 130W throughout the week. The old N to NE swell generated by
a now ended gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will subside overnight. Moderate seas will continue otherwise
through the early part of the week. Large southerly swell will
move into the waters S of the Equator late Tue night into Wed,
and reach 10N on Thu, gradually subsiding thereafter. Looking
ahead, The pressure gradient may tighten N of 05N and W of 110W
by the end of the week increasing trades to moderate to locally
fresh, with seas building locally to rough as a result.
Northerly swell may build seas to rough just S of 30N by late Thu
night into the weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
