028
AXPZ20 KNHC 041432
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N88W to 09N103W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N103W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted E of 80W, and from 05N to 11N
between 111W and 130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec along with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to
fresh gap winds are in the northern Gulf of California, with seas
in the 3-5 ft range. Seas are 3 ft or less across the remainder
of the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell
dominate the remainder of the waters, along with gentle winds,
except moderate to fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Meanwhile,
plentiful moisture is being advected from the deep tropics south
of the Hawaiian Islands to across the north- central discussion
waters and over Baja California to the SW United States.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will decrease today. Fresh to strong SW winds
and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of
California tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh
speeds offshore Baja California tonight as a stronger ridge
builds and tightens the pressure gradient, locally strong near
Cabo San Lucas at times. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are expected through the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending
downstream to near 88W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight
offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, fresh easterly winds are expected in the
Papagayo region through Tue night, and then again starting Thu
night, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected through much of the week. A set of
SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos
Islands Fri and Fri night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds
across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW
Mexico. A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds
north of the ITCZ to 18N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 6-9 ft
over these waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are noted.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh
trades, locally strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N
and west of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-9 ft across
this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere through the week, except seas building to
rough south of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell.
$$
AL
