000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090249
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 06N80W to 08N85W to
09.5N111W to 06.5N122W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N122W to
06N128W to 04.5N134W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 08N E of 95W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
05.5N to 13.5N between 95W and 115W, and from 02.5N to 10N
between 115W and 139W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
NW to N-NW winds off Baja California, east of 1025 mb high
pressure centered near 32N132W. Recent satellite altimeter
data shows 4-6 ft seas in NW swell, except to 7 ft to the NW of
Isla Guadalupe. Moderate northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur
and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and
Cabo Corrientes to 17N, where seas are also 4 to 6 ft. Moderate
to fresh NW winds continue inside the Gulf of California from
Guaymas to southern Sinaloa, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Gentle
breezes and moderate seas in a mix of NW and SW swell are noted
elsewhere to the east, becoming moderate SW winds across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms
prevail across the outer waters to the south of Tehuantepec and
Oaxaca.
For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will support moderate
to fresh NW winds and moderate to rough combined seas in NW swell off
Baja California Norte into Sun, before conditions improve
thereafter, as the high pressure weakens. The pattern will
support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas elsewhere into
early next week. Looking ahead, strong gap winds and building
seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Wed
night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Afternoon satellite scatterometer data indicated mostly gentle
to moderate breezes across the offshore waters of Central America
and southward to Ecuador, with fresh E to SE winds across
Papagayo to near 88W, and moderate northerly winds spilling into
northern portions of the Gulf of Panama. Combined seas are
mostly 4-6 ft except 6 to 8 ft in SW swell south of the equator.
Scattered moderate convection continues across the Gulf of
Panamas and waters of SW Panama.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at
night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell to reach
the southern waters of the Galapagos Islands tonight through
Sat.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Recent scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh
NE trade winds from 05N to 23N west of 117W, to the south of a
1025 mb centered near 32N132W. Recent satellite altimeter
data showed 6-9 ft seas in this area. Moderate or less breezes
and 5-6 ft seas are north of 23N, with gentle breezes and 5-8 ft
combined seas in SW swell S of the ITCZ. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are about the ITCZ W of 115W.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
through early Sun before drifting northward and weakening. The
associated pressure gradient will support fresh trades, strong at
times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with seas of 7-8
ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. Rough seas
are expected in building southerly swell S of the Equator tonight
through Sat evening.
$$
Stripling
