943
AXPZ20 KNHC 290715
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The local pressure gradient
induced by broad high pressure across the Gulf of America will
maintain fresh to near gale force N to NE gap winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon, with gale-force winds occurring
tonight through this morning, and then returning briefly Sun
night. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass missed the immediate
Gulf of Tehuantepec but indicated a large area of around 30 kt
winds well downwind of there. Recent altimeter data also measured
13 ft seas. Seas will remain rough to very rough during this
period of gale-force winds, peaking around 15 ft later this
morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N79W to 03N95W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N95W to 02N107W to 06.5N120W to beyond 06N140W.
A second ITCZ is analyzed along 03.4S between 93W and 103W then
continues WSW of 03.4S. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02S to 03.4S between 98W and 100W, and from 02S to 03.4S
between 104W and 110W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.
Other than the gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh NW winds are offshore Baja
California Norte as indicated by recent ASCAT scatterometer data.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are near Cabo San Lucas. Light
to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the waters. Seas are
moderate offshore Baja California and W of 110W, and slight
elsewhere away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force
gap wind event, broad low pressure is expected to persist across
Baja California and the adjacent offshore waters through the
early part of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
across the majority of the waters through Wed. The pressure
gradient will tighten thereafter with winds offshore Baja California
increasing to moderate to fresh. Slight to moderate seas will
prevail through much of the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail over the Papagayo region per
recent ASCAT scatterometer data, and likely extend southwestward
to near 90W, with seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of Panama,
moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail. Seas are light to gentle
elsewhere. Seas are slight offshore Colombia to the Gulf of
Panama, and moderate elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo downwind to near 92W through early Wed, then
moderate to fresh thereafter. In the Gulf of Panama, N-NE winds
will pulse through early Tue, building seas locally to rough at
times. Rough to very rough seas will spread offshore Guatemala
later this morning through tonight due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale-force gap wind event. Slight to moderate seas will prevail
otherwise through Tue night. Large SW swell will spread to the
waters from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands building
seas to 8-9 ft early Wed through Thu night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the open waters under a
relatively weak pressure gradient, except locally fresh from 06N
to 15N and W of 126W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Fresh
to strong NE winds extending from a gale-force Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event extend into the waters to near 11N101W
where seas are locally to 8 ft. Moderate seas prevail across the
remainder of the waters.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will dominate the open
waters through the next several days with weak high pressure
across much of the area and broad low pressure across Baja
California, while a series of frontal systems remains just W of
140W. N to NE swell generated by a gale-force gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread SW and impact the waters
roughly N of 05N and E of 107W through Mon. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse across these waters as well extending downwind
from Tehuantepec and into the trade wind zone east of 110W.
Moderate seas will continue otherwise through the early part of
the week. Large southerly swell will move into the waters S of
the Equator mid-week. Also, rough seas may move into the waters
near 30N140W Thu in SW swell.
$$
Lewitsky
