000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212041
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough axis extends from near 10N75W to 02N83W to 05N90W to
05.5N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 05.5N106W to 02N122W to
05N134W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed S of 06N between 85W and 100W, south of
01S between 96W and 105W, south of 08N between 103W and 130W, and
from 06N to 09N between 137W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak 1018 mb high remains centered well offshore of Cabo San
Lazaro and Baja California Sur near 121W this afternoon, ahead
of an approaching cold front that has reached 30N120W. The
associated broad ridge is yielding gentle to moderate NW to N
winds across the Baja waters, except light winds between Isla
Guadalupe and the front. Seas across this area are 4-5 ft in S
swell, except to 6 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands based on
recent satellite altimeter data. Elsewhere between 20N and
Puerto Angel, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail. An elongated middle to upper-level trough extends
from central Mexico W-SW into the tropics along 120W, and is
supporting continued scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 12N to 16N between 110W and coastal portions of
Oaxaca.
Midday satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
northerly gap winds to 30 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
extending southward to 13.5N. Seas in these waters are estimated
at 6-9 ft, with recent altimeter data showing seas to 8 ft
extending southward to near 09N.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extending across the
Gulf of America will begin to weaken tonight through Wed as the
high shifts northeastward. This will lead to a significant
decrease in gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight
through Wed morning, then a shift to S to SW winds there through
the remainder of the week. Elsewhere, a weak cold front
extending from southern California through 30N120W and beyond
will move southeastward and into the Baja Norte waters this
evening through tonight then dissipate Wed morning. New high
pressure behind this front will begin to build across the Baja
waters Wed, and act to increase winds modestly through early Fri
before weakening into Fri night. New NW swell generated behind
the front will move into the Baja California Norte waters tonight
and spread southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands through
Wed night. Seas are expected to peak to around 8 ft across north
and central portions of the Baja waters with this swell.
Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds are
expected through the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Modest high pressure north of the western Caribbean Sea is
forcing fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas across the
Papagayo region this afternoon, extending downstream to 89W. Seas
there are 4 to 7 ft. Farther east, gentle N to NE winds
occurring in the Gulf of Panama accelerate to moderate winds
around and to the south of the Azuero Peninsula. Seas in these
waters are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle
variable winds prevail. Cross-equatorial SW swell moving into
the area waters is producing seas of 5 to 8 ft, highest between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, gaps winds will pulse fresh to locally strong
speeds across the Papagayo region tonight into Wed morning, then
become variable through the remainder of the week. Similarly,
winds will pulse to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama tonight
into Wed morning before also weakening the rest of the week.
Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected to continue
over the Central American and the equatorial waters through the
end of the week. SW swell will peak across the area waters today
then subside tonight through Wed, with the next significant SW
swell expected to move into the area waters over the upcoming
weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening cold front continues to slide southeastward across
the northern waters, extending from 30N120W to 24N130W, then
becomes stationary and stretches to 21N140W. No significant
convection is seen near this boundary. Large NW to N swell
follows the front, supporting seas of 8-12 ft with the highest
seas near 28N135W. High pressure well NW of the front extends
weakly into the area and is producing light to gentle anticyclonic
winds behind the front to 30N. Weak high pressure SE of the
front dominates the remainder of the basin, supporting moderate
to locally fresh easterly trade winds between 108W and 120W, and
S of 21N to the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate seas to 7 ft in S
swell, prevail between the front and the ITCZ. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will move
east-southeastward, further weakening tonight and dissipating as
it moves into the central Baja waters on Wed. The NW swell
behind the front will spread southeastward over the next few
days, reaching the trade wind zone Wed evening, and leading to
rough seas around 8 ft there Wed night through Thu night. Little
overall changes are expected with winds and seas elsewhere
through Thu.
$$
Stripling
