000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101553
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest
Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 06N82W to 07N90W to 11N100W
to low pressure near 08N108W 1011 mb to 07N117W to low pressure
near 07N125W 1011 MB and to 07N130W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 98W-102W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough
between 120W-123W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
130W-138W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate northwest to north winds continue across the waters of
Baja California, due to the pressure gradient between a broad
ridge W of the area and relatively lower pressure in the Baja
California region. Localized areas of fresh winds are occurring
near the coast near Punta Eugenia and near Cabo San Lucas. Seas
with these winds are mostly 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Gentle
northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas
southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to
near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in mixed northwest to
southwest swell. Winds inside the Gulf of California are
generally at gentle speeds, with a few areas of moderate gap
winds. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher
seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southern portion. Gentle winds prevail
elsewhere to the east, with moderate seas in a mix of northwest
and southwest swell. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are over the outer waters beyond 90 nm of the coast from Oaxaca
to Guerrero and Michoacan.
For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support
moderate to fresh northwest to north winds off Baja California
Norte today. Mostly moderate seas in northwest swell will
continue over these waters through the period, except for rough
seas to 8 ft over the waters north through northwest of Isla
Guadalupe. The high pressure will weaken and drift northward Mon
through the middle part of the week, allowing for generally
gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. A new area of
high pressure will build southeastward across the region Wed
night through Thu night, leading to mostly fresh northwest to
north winds across the Baja waters. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night, then
become strong to near gale-force winds Tue through Wed night as
a cold front moves through southern Mexico.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicates mostly light to
gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and
southward to Ecuador, with fresh to strong east gap winds across
the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Moderate to locally
fresh N winds are spilling into the the Gulf of Panama north of
06.5N. Combined seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft, except for
higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in long-period southwest swell present
south 01N and east of about 100W to near the coast of Peru as
noted in recent altimeter satellite data. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring near the monsoon trough from the
southeast Gulf of Panama westward across the outer waters to near
90W.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will
pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the
the middle of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Large
southwest swell producing rough seas near 8 ft near the southern
waters of the Galapagos will subside late today, then increase again
late Tue through Wed.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1022 mb is centered north of the area near
31N136W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 08N to 25N
west of 126W, with similar trades from 10N to 25N between 117W
and 126W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed east and southwest swell
are over this area south of 21N and west of about 122W. Gentle
to moderate winds along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft are
elsewhere north of 11N per latest altimeter data a few SoFar
Ocean Spotter buoy observations. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in
southwest swell are south 13N. Convection over this area is as
described above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough, and has become focused
between between 96W and 112W, with a newer area of convection
near the ITCZ between 130W and 138W.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
today before it weakens and begin to drift northward Mon through
Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support
moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N
and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8
ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week.
Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will begin to impact a
portion of the far south-central waters starting tonight,
spreading eastward in coverage some tonight into Mon before
decaying later on Mon and into Tue.
$$
Aguirre
