844
AXPZ20 KNHC 020948
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:
High pressure building over eastern Mexico in the wake of a late-
season strong cold front will trigger a gap wind event in Gulf of
Tehunatepec Sat night through Mon. Anticipate these winds to
reach near-gale to gale-force Sun and Sun night, along with seas
peaking at 10 to 12 ft. Conditions will quickly improve Mon.
Please see the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends westward from near the coastal border of
Panama and Colombia to 07N100W to 08N120W. An ITCZ continues from
08N120W to 07N133W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 77W and 88W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 08N between 98W and
104W, and from 07N to 11N between 123W and 133W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section above for an up-coming
Gale Warning.
A broad surface ridge near 127W is supporting gentle to moderate
NW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft west of Baja California, and near
the Revillagigedo Islands. For the Gulf of California, mainly
gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist. Gentle with locally
moderate SW to W winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in mixed swells
prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico.
For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions in the
Tehunatepec region, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
expected at the northern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough
section for information on convection. Gentle to moderate NW to
SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across all the offshore
waters, except winds are from the S offshore Ecuador and near the
Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, convergent winds near a surface trough will
maintain scattered strong thunderstorms and locally gusty winds
in the offshore waters of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama,
and Colombia through at least Sun. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are expected at the Papagayo region from Mon
through early Tue. Persistent southerly swell will keep moderate
seas near the Galapagos Islands this morning, and then again
toward midweek next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough reaching northward from 05N138W to 16N138W is
causing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
04N to 17N west of 136W. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence
Zone/Monsoon Trough section for additional convection. A broad
surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1036 mb high near
42N144W across 30N140W to just south of the Revillagigedo
Islands. It is sustaining moderate NW to NE winds with 5 to 6 ft
seas north of 20N between 120W and 130W. Moderate to fresh NE to
E trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft exist for the remaining area
north of the ITCZ and west fo 120W. Gentle to moderate NW to NE
winds and 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells are present
elsewhere north of the ITCZ and east of 120W. South of the ITCZ,
mainly light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed
slight to moderate swells prevail.
A former cold front in the form of a surface trough will sink
south of 31N tonight through Sun, weakening the pressure
gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure
of the ITCZ. This will allow trade winds north of 20N to
diminish to between gentle and moderate by Sun night. The
combination of NW and SE swells will maintain seas at 7 to 9 ft
from 09N to 21N and west of 130W through midweek next week.
$$
Chan
