000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080904
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 06N79W to 08.5N92W
to 08.5N109W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N110W to 08.5N115W to
07N127W to 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 12.5N between 83W and 96W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N
to 07N E of 82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06N to 12N between 97W and 120W, and from 03.5N to 11N
between 120W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to locally fresh northwesterly winds prevail west of
the Baja California peninsula tonight, where seas are 4 to 6 ft
in W-NW swell, except to near 7 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe.
Light to gentle winds prevail across central portions of the
Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate westerly winds are
occurring across northern portions, and moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds prevail from southern portions of the Gulf to
Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 1 to 2 ft north and central portions of
the Gulf and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the waters east of
Cabo Corrientes to Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, 1028 mb high pressure remains NW of the area
tonight, and will drift N and weaken slightly this weekend through
early next week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas over much of the forecast waters through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend before weakening
Sun and Mon. Large NW swell will move into the outer waters off
Baja California Norte briefly Sat night through Sun, raising seas
to 8 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe during that time. Looking
ahead, strong gap winds and building seas are expected in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night as a cold front
moves through southern Mexico.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A small area of moderate to fresh E gap winds extend offshore of
southern Nicaragua the Papagayo region to near 88W tonight,
while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate NW to N
winds have begun to spill into western portions of the Gulf of
Panama. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the area waters,
except slight across the coastal waters of Colombia. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection remains from offshore of
Nicaragua near 90W to coastal Colombia and the Gulf of Panama.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse
at night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell to reach near
the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ,
centered on a 1028 mb high near 32N132W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 23N
and west of 125W, and N to NE winds between 115W and 125W. Seas
are 6-9 ft in W-NW swell across these waters S of 20N, highest
west of 125W, and 4 to 6 ft N of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas in S-SW swell prevails.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
through early sun before drifting northward and weakening. The
associated pressure gradient will support fresh trades, strong at
times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with seas of 7-8
ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. Rough seas
are expected in building southerly swell S of the Equator today
through Sat evening.
$$
Stripling
