000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280915
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough axis extends from 09N79W to 13N90W to 12N95W. The ITCZ extends
from 12N95W to 08N110W to 11N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is active within 60 nm of the ITCZ between
105W and 130W. A second ITCZ south of the area, extending from
03.4S110W to 02S125W and beyond.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Ridging off Baja California combined with troughing over northwest
Mexico supports moderate to fresh winds off the peninsula, with
moderate winds in the central Gulf of California. Winds are
mainly gentle elsewhere. Combined seas are 5-7 ft off Baja
California, 3-5 ft off southwest and southern Mexico, and 1-3 ft
in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, ridging will build over the area through mid week,
supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds over the Baja
California waters through mid week. Elsewhere, mostly light to
gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the week.
Moderate to fresh winds may develop off Baja California Sur and in
the central and southern Gulf of California Thu and Thu night as
the pressure gradient tightens slightly between high pressure off
Baja California and lower pressure farther east over northern
Mexico. Looking ahead, a northerly gap wind event is possible by
Sat night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle variable winds and 3-6 ft combined seas prevail
north of the Equator. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail south
of the Equator, within 5-7 ft seas in S to SW swell.
For the forecast, a light gradient will maintain rather tranquil
conditions over the Central American and Colombian waters through
the week while moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate
long-period south to southwest swell remain offshore Ecuador.
Seas off Ecuador will subside slightly by the end of the week
into the weekend. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the
Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama overnight Tue through Thu.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The ridge north of the ITCZ is disrupted by a trough extending
from 27N125W to 20N129W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicated fresh to strong NE winds within 60 nm to the west of
the trough, where seas are estimated to be near 8 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh NE winds are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ
to 20N west of 120W. Mainly light to gentle winds are elsewhere
across the open waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell
south of the Equator, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the
waters.
For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will persist through
mid week, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to
occasionally rough seas north of 10N and west of 125W. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4-6 ft will persist elsewhere. The trough
will dissipate through Thu, allowing the subtropical ridge to
build along 25N. This pattern will support moderate to fresh and
5-7 ft seas from 10N to 20N west of 120W this weekend, with
little change elsewhere.
$$
Christensen
