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Goals 2005-2007

Hurricane model transition to operations at GFDL/NOAA
(year 1: $97,000 / year 2: $94,400)
  • Make improvements to the current vortex initialization in the GDFL model for possible operational implementation in 2006.
  • Rerun the upgraded GFDL system for select cases from previous hurricane season from both Atlantic and Pacific Basins.
  • GFDL scientists will be utilized in an advisory capacity, in the refinement and testing of the nesting and nest movement algorithms in HWRF.

Hurricane model transition to operations at NCEP/EMC
(year 1: $199,963 / year 2: $192,491)
  • HWRF model development and the integration of the WRF model into a complete forecast system.
  • Model development includes checking the fidelity of the WRF physics packages, creating and converting additional WRF physical packages into the WRF software framework, and aiding in the development of the movable, nest design of the WRF system.
  • Careful comparisons will be made of the WRF prototype system with the present GFDL model.

Drag coefficient and wind speed dependence in TCs
(year 1: $64,700 / year 2: $67,300)
  • Process, quality control, organize by mean boundary layer wind speed, storm relative location and water depth all available GPSsonde profiles collected in hurricanes from 1997-2004.
  • Profiles will be average and analyzed to provide updated values of surface stress, roughness, and drag coefficient as a function of wind speed, storm-relative azimuth and water depth.
  • Mean profiles and relationships will be made available to modelers to evaluate model surface layer momentum flux packages as well as develop new parameterizations for the coupled HWRF model.

Dynamic initialization to improve TC intensity and structure forecasts
(year 1: $91,000 / year 2: $86,000)
  • Develop and implement the dynamic initialization using the diabatic digital filtering method for HWRF.
  • Test and evaluate different window filters and time integration strategies for diabatic digital filter initialization.
  • Develop a nudging method to ensure that the initialized solutions are close to observed cyclone position and structure.
  • Test and evaluate different lateral boundary treatments for the backward and forward initialization integrations.
  • Implement the dynamic initialization using the diabatic filtering method in HWRF.
  • Test, evaluate and adjust the dynamic initialization with HWRF.

Operational SFMR-NAWIPS airborne processing and data distribution products
(year 1: $125,785 / year 2: $95,469)
  • Improve the operational utilization of ocean surface wind and rain products derived from the SFMR.
  • Develop, test, implement and document procedures for SFMR calibration and validation.
  • Apply automated quality control routine that identifies and flags RFI and land contamination in real-time.
  • Update and verify the SFMR wind speed and rain rate retrieval algorithm.
  • Distribute the full information content of the SFMR data stream in real-time for NAWIPS use.

Mapping of topographic effects on maximum sustained surface wind speeds in landfalling hurricanes
(year 1: $20,832 / year 2: $18,174)
  • Use both the linear MS-Mirco and non-linear BLASIUS models for boundary layer flow over topography to map the effects of topography on surface wind speeds at a height of 10 m for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
  • Calculate speed-up factors initially using both models in conjunction with the US Geological Survey's National Elevation Dataset.
  • Create a set of maps showing contours of speed-up factors to be applied to forecasted maximum sustained surface wind speeds above flat terrain to account for the effects of topography for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Assimilating moisture information from GPS dropwindsondes into the NOAA Global Forecasting System
(year 1: $54,000 / year 2: $63,500)
  • Conduct a parallel run of the GFS to test the assimilation of the dropwindsonde moisture data during the 2005 hurricane season, with possible retrospective runs during the 2004 season.
  • Perform a detailed assessment of the impact of the moisture data on GFS forecasts of TC track intensity, as well as other forecast parameters.

WSR-88D derived diagnosis of tropical cyclone intensity changes near landfall
(year 1: $97,605 / year 2: $101,809)
  • Provide TPC/NHC with automatically updated charts of radar-derived, TC central surface pressure estimates and its tendency using the Ground-Based Velocity Track Display (GBVTD)- Hurricane Volume Velocity Processing (HVVP) combined algorithm.
  • RMW estimates as a function of time with an estimate of the uncertainty will also be offered.

Improved statistical intensity forecast models
(year 1: $77,803 / year 2: $79,500)
  • Improve the rapid intensity index (RII) and the SHIPS model by improving the method to account for the decay over land, optimizing the method used to calculate the vertical shear in SHIPS and the RII.
  • Improve the RII by using a more general statistical method and the inclusion of radial structure information from GOES and aircraft data.

Enhancement of SHIPS using passive microwave imager data
(year 1: $82,993 / year 2: $74,722)
  • Transition the microwave-enhanced regression models to TPC for real-time testing and operations
  • Further refine the regressions by doubling the number of seasons used in the microwave developmental sample.

Eastern Pacific ocean heat content estimates for SHIPS forecasts
(year 1: $79,024 / year 2: $76,363)
  • Estimate oceanic heat content (OHC) from satellite-derived signals to forecast intensity from SHIPS in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPAC).
  • Develop and evaluate monthly OHC climatology with observed oceanic thermal and salinity structure data and surface height anomaly (SHA) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields starting in 1995.
  • Evaluate the performance of SHIPS with PHC for the EPAC using daily measurements of SHAs and SSTs to issue hurricane intensity forecasts at TPC and CPHC.

Continued development of tropical cyclone wind probability products
(year 1: $26,501 / year 2: $22,650)
  • Continue testing and modification of the existing methods, coordination with TPC personnel related to operational transition, expertise provided for the development of probability training material and NWS products.
  • Develop of a verification package for the tropical cyclone wind probabilities.

Estimating tropical cyclone wind radii utilizing an empirical inland wind decay model
(year 1: $44,000 / year 2: $60,800)
  • Employ an empirical inland wind decay model to provide estimates of the overland wind radii for use in the TPC/NHC forecast advisory.
  • Generate a gridded wind swath of the maximum sustained wind utilizing the inland wind decay model and estimates of the 34, 50, and 64 kt wind radii will be obtained at the specified forecast times.

Prediction of consensus TC track forecast error and correctors to improve consensus TC track forecasts
(year 1: $35,000 / year2: $33,500)
  • Verify the Predicted Consensus Error product for the 2004 season for all basins and make improvements to the PCE product for the 2005 season using a pool of predictors form the 2001-2004 seasons so that forecasters can better ascertain forecast uncertainty and convey that information to the customer.
  • Apply this approach used to predict consensus model forecast error and determine correctors to be applied to the consensus model forecast to produce a "corrected consensus" forecast to further improve the skill of consensus forecast guidance.

Development and implementation of NHC/JHT products in ATCF
(year 1: $66,000 / year 2: $60,000)
  • Implement NHC/JHT requirements and integrate NHC specific research results in ATCF.
  • Improve ATCF image overlay capability, enhance the graphical user interface, automate the TC fix entry into the NHC operational ATCF, and improve the NHC objective best track algorithms.

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