ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane John Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John continues to rapidly strengthen. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, while the latest objective intensity estimates are a little higher, in the 79 to 90 kt range. On infrared satellite imagery, the area of cold cloud tops continues to grow, and the inner core is becoming more symmetric. The latest visible images have shown hints of a small eye, that has become a little more apparent in the last few hours. Based on the above data and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt, making John a category 2 hurricane. Environmental parameters continue to be ripe for additional rapid intensification, with very warm ocean temperatures, weak vertical wind shear and a moist atmosphere. The only potential limiting factor could be how John might interact with the mountainous topography of Mexico as the hurricane approaches the coastline. The DSHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models remain at the higher end of the guidance envelope and show John becoming a major hurricane as it approaches the coast. The EC SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index is depicting a high likelihood of continued rapid intensification over next 12 hours. The latest NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance and continues to show John strengthening to a 105-kt hurricane. It is possible that John could peak even higher than shown below between the 12 h forecast point and when it reaches the coast. John continues to move due northward, now at 5 kt. The current motion and the latest model guidance has again necessitated a westward track shift to the NHC forecast. Given the updated track forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 98.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.0N 98.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 98.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0600Z 16.7N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2024 12:10:17 UTC