ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane John Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65 to 85 kt. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. It is possible that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast. Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to show landfall occurring a bit sooner. Residents of Mexico in the hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1800Z 15.1N 98.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2024 12:10:17 UTC