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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023
100 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
 
The depression appears to be interacting with the dry airmass to its
north. A large arc cloud stretches around the northern and western
portions of the circulation.  Cloud tops have generally warmed
throughout the day and there have been isolated bursts of convection
near the suspected location of the low-level center.  Intensity
estimates still range between 30 to 40 kt.  The initial intensity
remains at 30 kt since the convective organization has not improved
since the previous advisory.
 
It has been difficult to locate the center of the depression and
the initial motion is set to an uncertain 335/3 kt.  A weak
mid-level ridge will continue to slowly steer the system generally
northward through the weekend.  The latest track prediction is very
similar to the previous forecast and has only been adjusted based on
the latest estimated initial position.
 
Oceanic and environmental conditions are expected to become more 
hostile in the coming days.  Vertical wind shear is forecast to 
remain strong through the forecast period and mid-level moisture 
should decrease within a day or so.  Therefore, chances remain quite 
low for the depression to strengthen further and the official 
forecast maintains the current intensity for the next 36 h.  By end 
of the weekend, the depression is expected to become a remnant low 
and likely open into a trough by Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 13.5N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 14.8N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 15.3N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 15.7N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0600Z 16.1N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Bucci
 
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