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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023
100 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-E's visible and infrared depiction has 
deteriorated some this afternoon, with slightly less deep 
convection. The system is struggling to become better organized due 
to northwesterly wind shear, and the low-level center is now exposed 
on the northwest side of the convective plume. Subjective intensity 
estimates have a fairly large range this cycle, from 30 kt up to 
45 kt. A scatterometer pass from this afternoon shows winds on the 
lower end, between 28-32 kt. Given this data, the initial intensity 
is held towards the low end of these estimates at 30 kt this 
advisory.
 
The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 3 kt.  A
continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to
its northwest. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the system gradually moving poleward. The NHC forecast was nudged
slightly to the left of the previous track, and lies near the
consensus aids.
 
Some slight strengthening over the next 24 h remains possible as the 
system is currently over warm sea surface temperatures. After this 
time, an increase in vertical wind shear and dry air should cause 
weakening. The system will likely struggle to produce organized deep 
convection by 72 hours, with the system becoming a remnant low at 
that time. However, given the harsh environment and small size of 
the system, this transition could occur sooner. Most models show 
the system dissipating and opening into a trough by the end of the 
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one, near the HCCA corrected consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 12.0N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 12.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 13.4N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 14.4N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 15.6N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 16.1N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z 17.0N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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