ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 900 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Pilar's satellite presentation consists of a ragged cloud pattern with a few new bursts of deep convection near surface center. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a recent SATCON analysis from UW-CIMSS. Dry, stable marine-layer mid-level air continues to prevent Pilar from maintaining organized deep convection, and this negative atmospheric contribution is expected to linger during the next several days. Additionally, southwesterly shear is forecast to increase during the next 36 hours, and this should induce a weakening trend by Monday. Small intensity fluctuations are still possible through the weekend, although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate it. The intensity forecast follows the various consensus intensity aids closely and indicates that Pilar will become a remnant low in 60 hours and open up into a trough in 4 days or less. Pilar's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt, and is being steered by a subtropical ridge located to the north. Global and regional models suggest that the above-mentioned mid-tropospheric ridge will weaken near the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause a reduction in the cyclone's forward speed while gradually turning Pilar west-northwestward and northwestward by Monday. There remains an increase in across-track spread in the global models, specifically with the GFS lying to the far right side of the guidance envelope beyond 36 hours, and the ECMWF on the far left side. The official forecast is nudged toward the left side of the guidance suite and is close to the NOAA HFIP HCCA corrected consensus model and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 10.2N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 10.3N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 10.7N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 11.3N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 12.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 13.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:30 UTC