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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Pilar has not strengthened this evening.  In fact, the system looks 
less organized on satellite images with the center becoming exposed 
on the southern side of a ragged-looking area of deep convection.  
There are some poorly-defined banding features over the western 
portion of the circulation, and the upper-level outflow does not 
appear to be very pronounced.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from 
TAFB and SAB are 3.0 which corresponds to 45 kt, and objective 
satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased a bit 
from earlier today.  The intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for 
this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is slowly east-northeastward, or 070/4 
kt, which is about the same as in the previous advisory.  There is 
currently a weakness in the ridge to the northeast of Pilar which is 
apparently inducing the east-northeastward motion.  This movement is 
expected to continue a little while longer, bringing the center of 
the cyclone closer to the coast on Tuesday.  Over the next few days, 
a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast and north of 
the system.  This steering evolution should cause Pilar to make a 
sharp turn and move west-southwestward away from the coast beginning 
Wednesday.  A continued west-southwestward to westward track is 
likely for the rest of the forecast period.  The official track 
forecast is close to the model consensus, and does not bring the 
center of Pilar closer to the coast than previously forecast.

Although moderate vertical wind shear is likely to continue 
affecting Pilar, a moist and unstable air mass along with warm ocean 
waters should allow some strengthening during the next day or so.  
Later in the forecast period, easterly shear could inhibit 
strengthening.  The official intensity forecast is a blend of the 
simple and corrected model consensus predictions.


Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding, 
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast 
of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through 
Wednesday.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday
along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and
Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests
elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or
warnings could be needed tomorrow. 
 
3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 11.3N  90.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 11.4N  90.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 11.7N  89.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 11.9N  90.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 11.6N  91.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 11.1N  92.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 10.5N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z  9.3N 100.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/0000Z  9.3N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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