ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Pilar appears to have intensified this morning. Satellite imagery indicate that very deep convection is located to the northwest of the center, with more organization in low-level banding features noted in recent microwave passes. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which matches the recent TAFB satellite classification and is close to the UW-CIMSS satellite consensus value. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the system this afternoon for a more precise look at the storm. The storm continues moving slowly to the east-northeast, and most models continue this motion for the next day or so. Thereafter, nearly all of the models stall Pilar near the coast of Central America by Tuesday night, though they still keep the core of the storm offshore. On Wednesday, Pilar will likely turn west- southwestward away from land as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system, and most of the guidance shows the storm moving very close to or just north of its track on approach to Central America. Only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast, generally near or a bit north of the last track prediction. Pilar has a day or two to intensify in moderate shear conditions within a very warm and moist environment. Most of the guidance respond to this forcing by showing Pilar near hurricane strength, and the official forecast continues the same peak as the last advisory. In 36 to 48 hours, an increase in southeasterly shear could cause Pilar to level off in intensity and eventually weaken, along with any dry air intrusions from a gap wind event or storm-induced upwelling. The long-range intensity guidance is a bit higher than the last cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted upward at that time frame. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, near the Pacific coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings could be needed later today. 3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 11.1N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 11.3N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 11.5N 89.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 12.0N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.1N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 11.7N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 11.2N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 10.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 9.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:30 UTC