ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Satellite data indicated that Otis continued to strengthen to near the time of landfall in southern Mexico. Subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were around T7.0 (140 kt) around 04-05Z while raw objective ADT numbers were in the T7.2 to T7.6 range between about 01-05Z. Based on that data, Otis is estimated to have made landfall around 0625 UTC as a category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 145 kt. The core of the hurricane moved onshore in the greater Acapulco area. Now that the center of Otis has moved inland, weakening has begun and the initial intensity has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. Rapid weakening will occur during the next 12 to 24 hours as Otis moves over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico, however damaging hurricane-force winds are likely to spread inland through this morning, and heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also likely to spread inland over portions of southern Mexico. The circulation of Otis is forecast to dissipate over the mountains of southern Mexico tonight or Thursday. The hurricane is moving north-northwestward or 345 degrees at 9 kt. A ridge to the northeast of Otis and a trough to the west of the storm should continue to steer the cyclone north-northwestward until dissipation occurs tonight. The NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little faster than the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds will spread inland over southern Mexico this morning with extremely destructive winds near the core during the next few hours. 2. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along the coast of southern Mexico this morning in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. 3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 100.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.2N 100.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/0600Z 19.2N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:27 UTC