ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Deep convection has continued to pulse over the northwestern portion of Otis overnight. The center was noted near the southeastern edge of the deep convection in shortwave infrared satellite imagery earlier in the night. Since that time, the center has become a little more embedded within the cold cloud tops. As a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt for this advisory. This intensity is a blend of the most recent Dvorak T- and CI- numbers from TAFB and SAB, and close to the latest SATCON and D-PRINT objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Otis has been moving northward or 360/4 kt. The storm is expected to move northward to north-northwestward between a ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a trough over northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models all take Otis near the coast of southern Mexico by midweek, with the ECMWF being the fastest. That model shows the storm making landfall in southern Mexico in just over 48 hours. Meanwhile, the GFS continues to depict a weaker system that stays embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone and meanders well south of Mexico for several days. Since the majority of the guidance has a track closer or inland over Mexico, the NHC forecast continues to lean toward that scenario and takes Otis inland in a few days, but this could occur much sooner. The NHC track is a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian, HMON, and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. The storm is over very warm waters and within an environment of light to moderate shear. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening while the system remains over water. Some increase in shear and the possibility of land interaction could cause the intensity to level off in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the higher end of the guidance, close to the statistical guidance and the HCCA model. Based on this latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico early this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday along portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 11.4N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 12.1N 97.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 13.0N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.0N 97.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 15.6N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 16.4N 99.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 17.9N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:27 UTC