ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 The tropical depression south of Mexico has strengthened into Tropical Storm Otis. Satellite imagery shows that the center is just east of an increasing area of deep convection that has continued to consolidate. With this slight improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt, which is below the 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Otis is moving northward at 4 kt. A continued slow northward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in a light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to its northwest. By midweek, the system is expected to weaken as it shifts northwestward in the low-level flow. However, by the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance making the long-term forecast somewhat uncertain. The NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids and a little to the north of the previous one at days 4 and 5. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days while the storm remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind shear should cause slow weakening, and most of the models show the system decoupling or dissipating by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 11.6N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 12.7N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 13.5N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 13.9N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 14.2N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 14.5N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 14.9N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:27 UTC