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HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
1500 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.7N 107.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  40SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 109.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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