ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 The center of Norma is exposed tonight with all of the deep convection displaced well northeast of the center. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, in accordance with Dvorak estimates assuming some weakening from earlier scatterometer data. While the global models re-develop some deep convection overnight near the center over the warm Gulf of California waters, strong shear is expected to cause Norma to weaken as it approaches mainland Mexico. Norma is forecast to continue to move slowly east-northeastward through landfall early Monday, then rapidly weaken and dissipate as a tropical cyclone over the elevated terrain in less than 24 hours. Only a slight southward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are expected to be the main hazards with Norma. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact locations in and near Sinaloa into Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 25.0N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:25 UTC