ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Lidia is estimated to have made landfall around 2350 UTC near Las Penitas in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Satellite imagery showed an eye briefly clearing and warming before reaching the coastline, and the maximum sustained wind speed was estimated to be 120 kt. Since that time, the structure of Lidia has degraded. The eye is no longer apparent and convection around the center is no longer symmetric. The initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 90 kt. Continued rapid weakening is expected for the next day while Lidia moves over the elevated terrain in west-central Mexico. Model guidance shows the storm will dissipate within 24 hours, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast. The hurricane's motion is estimated to be 60/15 kt. Lidia is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow of a mid- to upper-level trough located over northern Mexico. Minor adjustments have been made to the NHC track forecast. Even as Lidia dissipates, remnant moisture could result in flooding rainfall and possible mudslides as it moves inland. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is moving inland over west-central Mexico as a hurricane. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected along the path of the storm overnight. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. Dangerous water levels along the coast of west-central Mexico will gradually subside overnight. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.6N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 22.1N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:21 UTC