ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Earlier microwave imagery and recent geostationary satellite data indicate that the low-level center of Lidia is located just beneath the eastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0 (45 kt) and T2.5 (35 kt), respectively. Since the center appears to be slightly more embedded within the deep convection, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, using a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates. A very recently arriving GMI microwave overpass shows that there has been some increase in organization, but the mid-level center is displaced about 30-40 n mi west of the low-level center. The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330 degrees at 7 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A mid-level ridge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone northwestward to north-northwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a narrow ridge is forecast to build to the north of Lidia which should result in a slower westward motion through much of the remainder of the forecast period. There is still a large amount of along-track spread in the guidance after the westward turn, with the UKMET and ECMWF on the faster side of the guidance envelope. The GFS and HAFS-A/B models are much slower. It should also be noted that there is unusually large spread between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the various multi-model consensus aids. This results in lower-than-normal confidence in Lidia's long range track forecast. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and regional hurricane models. The SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear will persist over Lidia during the next several days. However, other environmental conditions consisting of warm sea surface temperatures and a moist environment favor some strengthening. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls from slow intensification during the next several days, but it is a little lower than the previous forecast at the long range. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is a little above the latest HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.0N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.3N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 15.7N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 15.6N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:20 UTC