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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023
500 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023
 
There's been little change in the depression's cloud pattern since
yesterday evening.  Recent microwave and first visible conventional
satellite images depict a sheared tropical cyclone with the surface
center well north of the shapeless deep convection.  The intensity 
is held at 30 kt for this advisory and is based on the TAFB and SAB 
satellite intensity estimates.
 
Although the depression is expected to track over warm oceanic
surface temperatures during the next few days, increasing wind shear
and an intruding dry and stable air mass should prevent the cyclone 
from strengthening through the forecast period.  Therefore, the new 
official intensity forecast no longer indicates a short-term 
intensification period, and now shows the depression degenerating to 
a remnant low early this week, as suggested by the statistical 
SHIPS intensity models and the global guidance.
 
The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 
280/13 kt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge extending from the Baja 
California peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should 
steer the cyclone on a generally westward track through the 36-hour 
period.   Afterward, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected 
while the vertically shallow depression moves through the low-level 
tradewind flow through dissipation.  The NHC forecast track is to 
the right of the previous advisory due to the initial position 
adjustment and lies between the HFIP HCCA and TVCE consensus 
forecasts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 15.2N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 15.2N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 15.1N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 14.7N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 14.1N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 13.3N 136.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 12.6N 140.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 10.8N 146.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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