ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 The cyclone has not become significantly better organized over the past several hours. Deep convection has been waxing and waning near the estimated center and the system lacks distinct convective banding features. Upper-level outflow is not very well defined at this time. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little higher, suggesting that the cyclone may be a minimal tropical storm. However it is prudent to wait for additional intensity estimates before upgrading the system. Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate of initial motion is westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should maintain a generally westward track for the next couple of days. The track model consensus shows a slightly south of westward motion in the latter part of the forecast period, Thus the official forecast has been nudged a little south of the previous one in 2-4 days, but not as far south as the consensus prediction. Over the next day or so, the depression should remain over warm waters and in an atmospheric environment of moderate vertical wind shear with marginally moist mid-level humidities. Therefore some modest short-term strengthening is predicted. Around 48 hours and beyond, southwesterly shear should increase and this, along with some drier air, is likely to halt the intensification process. The system is likely to gradually weaken in 2 to 4 days and, in fact, the global models show the system degenerating into a trough within 4 days. The official forecast, like the previous one, shows the system becoming a remnant low in 96 hours. However it is possible that the cyclone may not last as long as that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.3N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.7N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 14.6N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 13.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 13.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 11.8N 144.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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