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Tropical Depression Kenneth Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
Kenneth is just barely enough to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center
continues to be exposed with waning convection displaced to the
north of the system. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the
system is producing winds around 25-30 kt. Based on the 
scatterometer pass, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this 
advisory, which is also in good agreement with the latest TAFB 
Dvorak intensity estimate.
 
The tropical depression is moving to the north at 9 kt. The system
will continue to move northward during the next day or two, around 
a high pressure ridge centered over central Mexico. Towards the end 
of the period, the remnant low will begin to move westward in the
low-level flow. There was little change to the previous forecast
track for this advisory.
 
Kenneth is in a fairly hostile environment with strong vertical wind
shear and cool sea surface temperatures. The system should continue
to gradually weaken in these unfavorable conditions. Kenneth is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 19.4N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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