ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023
 
Microwave and proxy-visible satellite images of Kenneth indicate the 
center lies to the southwest of a small area of deep convection. 
This is likely the result of increasing southwesterly deep-layer 
shear over the tropical cyclone. These data supported a relocation 
of the center slightly to the southeast of the previous estimates. 
With the center becoming exposed, the objective and subjective 
satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease. Thus, the 
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.  
 
Kenneth is moving northwestward (320/7 kt) between a mid- to 
upper-level low to the northwest and a subtropical ridge over 
Mexico. The track guidance continues to support a turn toward the 
north-northwest and north during the next day or so. Once again, the 
NHC forecast update has been adjusted slightly to the right in 
agreement with the latest track consensus aids. Environmental 
conditions are expected to become increasingly hostile as Kenneth 
encounters stronger shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs along its 
path. This will make it difficult for Kenneth to sustain organized 
convection, and this forecast shows post-tropical/remnant low status 
in 36 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite 
imagery. The remnant low is forecast to open into a trough by early 
Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 17.1N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 18.2N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 20.1N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 21.6N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z 22.7N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0000Z 23.9N 126.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN