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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023
 
Infrared satellite images indicate that deep convection associated
with Kenneth has been decreasing in intensity during the past
several hours, and accordingly, some of the Dvorak estimates have
been coming down.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is
still near a blend of all of the satellite intensity estimates.
 
Dry air is beginning to wrap into the western portion of the
circulation, and that stable air combined with a significant
increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely cause
deep convection to strip away from the low-level center and result
in weakening that should commence later today.  Kenneth is expected
to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, when it is
forecast to be over sub 26 degree C waters and in an environment of
more than 30 kt of wind shear.  The remnant low is now expected to
open into a trough by 72 hours, following most of the models.
 
Kenneth is moving northwestward at 9 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level low to its northwest and a subtropical ridge
situated over central Mexico.  A turn to the north-northwest and
then the north is expected later today and early Friday as Kenneth
continues to move in the flow between the aforementioned features.
The new forecast is shifted a little to the right to be closer to
the GFS and ECMWF models, which are in good agreement.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 17.5N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 18.5N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 20.0N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 21.7N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 22.9N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1800Z 24.2N 126.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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