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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Kenneth's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably during the last 
6 hours.  The average of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak numbers is 
45 kt.  Most of the objective intensity estimates are a bit lower.  
Based on the above data, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 
kt for this advisory.

The center of Kenneth is estimated to be near the southern edge of 
the central dense overcast.  However, the current position is quite 
uncertain.  The initial motion is estimated at 290/9 kt. A turn to 
the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Thursday between a 
subtropical high centered over northwestern Mexico and a potent 
mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kenneth.  The track 
forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous NHC 
track prediction, but not as far north as the latest consensus 
models.

Kenneth is currently located in an environment that is favorable 
enough for it to at least maintain its intensity over the next 
12-24 hours.  However, a more stable air mass is located just to 
the north and northwest of the cyclone, as evidenced by scattered 
low stratus clouds seen on GOES-18 satellite imagery, indicative of 
a marine boundary layer.  As Kenneth approaches the mid- to 
upper-level trough over the next couple of days, strong 
southwesterly wind shear will increasingly encroach on Kenneth. 
Kenneth will also cross the 26C isotherm about the same time the 
shear ramps up Thursday evening.  Therefore, steady weakening is 
forecast, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or 
Saturday.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one and is near the middle of the intensity consensus 
aids. 

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 15.7N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts
 
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