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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023
 
Kenneth's cloud pattern has become a little better organized since
yesterday evening.  Conventional imagery and a recent AMSR2
microwave overpass show improved curved banding in the northern and
eastern semi-circles.  Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised 
to 45 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
Although not explicitly shown in the official intensity 
forecast, there's a possibility that the storm could strengthen 
a little more in the short term, but that small window of 
opportunity appears to end tomorrow while deep-layer shear 
increases along Kenneth's track.  This inhibiting upper-level wind 
pattern, along with decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and 
an invading stable and dry lower boundary marine layer should 
induce a weakening trend through dissipation in about 4 days.
 
Kenneth's anticipated turn toward the west-northwest has
occurred overnight, and the estimated motion is 290/9 kt around
the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high centered over
northwestern Mexico.  On Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to 
turn northwestward while moving between the above mentioned high 
pressure and an approaching mid-tropospheric trough to its 
northwest.  The NHC track forecast is based primarily on the
HFIP HCCA corrected consensus and only a slight adjustment to the 
right of the previous forecast was made beyond the 24-hour period.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 15.2N 123.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 15.6N 124.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 16.2N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 17.4N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 18.9N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 20.2N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 20.7N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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