ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023
 
Deep convection has been increasing over the past several hours, but 
the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the northwest quadrant 
of Kenneth due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear.  An ASCAT-C 
pass caught the western half of the circulation and showed maximum 
winds in the 30-35 kt range, but it is possible that stronger winds 
exists east of the center.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held 
at 40 kt, which is a near the average of the latest satellite 
intensity estimates that range from 30 to 45 kt.

Kenneth could strengthen a little during the next day or so as the 
shear decreases.  However, the opportunity for strengthening seems 
to end on Thursday when the storm moves into a region of strong 
southwesterly vertical wind shear.  These hostile winds aloft 
combined with dry air entrainment and progressively cooler SSTs 
should cause Kenneth to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low in 
a few days and dissipate shortly thereafter.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but still lies at 
the high end of the guidance.

The storm is moving westward at 9 kt.  A turn to the west-northwest 
is expected later today as Kenneth nears the southwestern periphery 
of a subtropical ridge.  On Thursday, a turn to the northwest is 
forecast as Kenneth moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- 
to upper-level trough to its northwest.  The models have trended 
left this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that 
direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 14.8N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 15.4N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 16.0N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 16.8N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 19.4N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 20.3N 128.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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