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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023
 
Kenneth is a poorly organized tropical cyclone.  The large
convective canopy from earlier this afternoon has mostly
collapsed, with only a couple new convective cells forming well to
the northwest of the center.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data, although satellite intensity
estimates are no higher than about 35 kt.
 
Microwave data suggests that Kenneth's center has jogged--or 
re-formed--a bit to the southwest of the previous fixes.  The 
long-term motion is gradually slowing down and is now westward, or 
270/11 kt.  A mid-level high centered over west-central Mexico and a 
deep-layer trough extending southwest of California are expected to 
steer Kenneth generally toward the northwest through the end of the 
week.  The NHC track forecast is changed little from the previous 
prediction, and lies to the right of the TVCE multi-model consensus, 
although not as far to the right as the latest GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA 
solutions.
 
Moderate easterly shear is affecting the storm, but SHIPS 
diagnostics suggest the shear should decrease and be relatively 
light during the next 36 hours.  The NHC forecast shows some modest 
strengthening during this period, and is at the upper end of the 
guidance envelope to maintain continuity with the previous forecast. 
By 48 hours, Kenneth is expected to reach cooler waters, and 
deep-layer shear is forecast to increase out of the southwest. 
Weakening is therefore expected, and GFS- and ECMWF-based simulated 
satellite images indicate that Kenneth could lose organized deep 
convection and degenerate into a remnant low by day 3.  The remnant 
low is forecast to dissipate by day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 14.6N 121.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.1N 123.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 15.8N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 16.6N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 17.7N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 19.2N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 20.4N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 21.4N 128.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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