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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023
 
Persistent showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with the area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. A 19/0535
UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined circulation. The invest is
upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. This intensity is in
agreement with the ASCAT pass and a satellite intensity estimate of
30 kt from TAFB.
 
The current motion estimate is 295/11. A west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next 36 h as the cyclone is steered by the
trade wind flow. After that time, a potent mid- to upper-level
trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause
Thirteen-E to turn to the northwest and north-northwest. The track
forecast is in best agreement with the consensus aid TVCE. After the
cyclone loses its convection and becomes a remnant low, a bend back
to the west-northwest is likely in 4 to 5 days.
 
Warm ocean temperatures, light northeasterly to easterly vertical
wind shear, and a moist low to mid-level troposphere currently
surround the tropical cyclone. The system has perhaps 36 hours to
strengthen while it remains over these relatively favorable
environmental conditions. The cyclone is forecast to cross the 26C
isotherm in about 48 h. The aforementioned approaching mid- to
upper-level trough will induce strong southwesterly vertical wind
shear on the cyclone beginning by 60 h. After that time, much drier
air along with further decreasing ocean temperatures and increasing
wind shear will lead to the cyclone losing its convection and
becoming a remnant low in about 4 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 15.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 15.2N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 16.0N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 16.7N 125.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 17.9N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 19.8N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 22.5N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z 24.0N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart
 
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