ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Jova has been devoid of deep convection for roughly 12 hours or so. The overall cloud pattern continues to become disheveled, as the system gradually spins down. Given that the system has not been producing convection for some time now, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Jova has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, based on a recent scatterometer pass which is in agreement with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Jova will continue to spin down for the next couple of days as it remains a remnant low, before opening up into a trough in about 72 h. No significant changes were made to the official forecast, which lies near the consensus intensity aids. Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 5 kt, A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest, with an increase in forward motion is forecast. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the model consensus. This is the last advisory on this system from the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.8N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:15 UTC