ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Jova is maintaining some deep convection near the center, and some shallow convective banding features are still evident over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Since the central convection has still not decreased much, the current intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. This is above the subjective Dvorak estimates, but in general agreement with objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The cyclone continues on a northwestward heading with a motion of about 315/8 kt, on the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. As the system weakens further, it should be steered more by the low-level trade wind flow, and turn toward the east and east-southeast. The official track forecast lies roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. It is a bit surprising the the system has been able to maintain deep convection this evening. Since the storm will remain over cooler waters of 23 deg C or lower, however, weakening is likely and the system should degenerate into a remnant low by Monday. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.7N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 24.8N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.9N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 24.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 23.9N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 23.3N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:15 UTC