ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a deteriorating cloud pattern with what remains of the deep convection confined to the western half of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory. Jova is forecast to spin down slowly during the next few days, while traversing decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a high, statically stable surrounding environment. Most models indicate that Jova will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in 60 hours, which is shown in the NHC intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, 300/11 kt. The NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Jova should continue to move generally toward that northwest within the southeasterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by subtropical high pressure that stretches from the southwestern U.S. across most of the eastern Pacific. As Jova sheds its associated deep convection and degenerates to a vertically shallow cyclone, Jova is expected to decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west, and west-southwest within the easterly tradewind flow through dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 21.5N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.3N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.4N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 24.3N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 23.9N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 22.7N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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