ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Jova's steady decline has continued as the hurricane moves over cooler waters. Cloud tops have warmed, and the last hints of an eye have disappeared in all geostationary imagery. A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supported an intensity of 70 kt at 00 UTC. The 65 kt advisory intensity assumes a little futher weakening has happened since then. Additional weakening will continue during the next few days, primarily due to the cool waters beneath Jova and a drying environment. Most models indicate that Jova will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low near or just after 60 h, which is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. The track forecast remains straightforward. For the next 2 days or so, Jova will continue moving generally northwestward, steered by a deep ridge that extends from the southwestern U.S. across the eastern 2/3 of the basin. As Jova loses its deep convection, it should slow down and turn westward, and then west-southwestward within low-level flow. Model guidance, both for track and intensity, is in very good agreement on Jova's evolution during the next few days and confidence in the forecast is high. No significant changes to the NHC forecast were required for this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 21.1N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 22.0N 125.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 24.8N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 24.8N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 24.5N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 23.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN
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