ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Jova continues to weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures. The overall satellite depiction of Jova is that of a weakening tropical system, encountering a more stable environment. A SSMIS microwave pass that came in just after the previous advisory, shows that banding around Jova is thinning, and the inner core is collapsing as dry air wraps into the system. Cloud tops within the convection have been warming throughout the day as well. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have continued to decrease throughout the day. The initial intensity has been set to 75 kt, which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Environmental conditions along the forecast track are becoming less favorable, as the hurricane is moving over cool sea surface temperatures and into a more stable airmass. The latest NHC forecast continues to show steady weakening and is similar to the previous advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time. Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days while the cyclone rounds the end of a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow towards the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory, just slightly slower and lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:15 UTC