ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution 1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB. Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models, DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135 kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air, which should induce weakening. Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:14 UTC